Gabriel Diallo vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Felix arrives as the higher-ranked and more established player (rank 8) with a strong Elo (3806.19) and a form index of 66.51; his cumulative tournament fatigue is relatively low at 136 minutes. Gabriel, ranked 41 with an Elo of 1124.40 and a form index of 34.43, has logged 305 minutes on court so far at this event. On hard courts, Auger-Aliassime’s surface strength (26.60) and very high mean serve index (98.57) give him a clear edge in initiating points. The mean serve index gap between them (~17 points) is meaningful and likely to tilt service holds and free points toward Auger-Aliassime. Equally notable is the return index split: Felix’s 87.31 versus Diallo’s 43.53 — a large differential that suggests Auger-Aliassime will be much more effective in taking charge on return games. Over the last three matches, Diallo has shown resilience at Indian Wells with wins over Mattia Bellucci and Andrey Rublev (both on hard), following an earlier loss at Delray Beach. He has had long court time here, including a 172-minute match. Auger-Aliassime’s recent form includes a straight-set win over Jiri Lehecka and a win over Gael Monfils at Indian Wells, tempered by a loss to Daniil Medvedev in Dubai. The recent results show Felix maintaining a higher performance level and fresher legs relative to Diallo.