Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Auger-Aliassime stems mainly from his superior recent record by level and his serve-and-return package. Over the last rounds at this event Felix has been crisp (three straight wins, including two 3-0s and a tough 3-2), a pattern that the explainability engine counts heavily in his favor. His form index (76.74) outstrips Djokovic’s (62.53), and that recent form adds a further tilt toward Felix. Serve and return metrics also push the prediction toward Auger-Aliassime. Felix posts a mean serve index of 97.91 and a mean return index of 92.56 — both elite numbers — while Djokovic records 96.51 on serve and 89.04 on return. Neither gap exceeds five points, but the model still rewards Felix’s slightly stronger balance in these areas. Age is another contributing factor in Felix’s favor, while Djokovic’s higher surface strength index (53.23 v 37.61) gives Novak a clear grass-court advantage. Elo and rank are split: Djokovic carries the higher Elo (2049.55) but Felix holds the higher seed (No.4 v No.7). Both players enter this quarterfinal with identical tournament court time (fatigue 696 minutes).