Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Flavio Cobolli vs Alexis Galarneau Prediction

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #18
74%
VS

Alexis Galarneau

Rank: #198
26%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

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Ranking Trends

Flavio Cobolli

  • Current #18 2025-07-21
  • 3 mo ago #36 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #34 2025-01-27
  • 9 mo ago #32 2024-10-28
  • 12 mo ago #48 2024-07-29

Alexis Galarneau

  • Current #198 2025-07-21
  • 3 mo ago #201 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #176 2025-01-27
  • 9 mo ago #236 2024-10-28
  • 12 mo ago #232 2024-07-29

Player Metrics

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 61.1
ELO Rating: 1417.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1658.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.9
Clay: 13.1
Grass: 11.6
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 88.2

Alexis Galarneau

Form Index: 31.0
ELO Rating: 319.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1524.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 96.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.7
Clay: 2.2
Grass: 2.7
Serve Rating: 93.3
Return Rating: 87.2

Recent Matches

Flavio Cobolli
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Alexis Galarneau
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Flavio Cobolli
vs
0
Alexis Galarneau
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The match between Flavio Cobolli and Alexis Galarneau takes place in the Round of 64 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto, Canada, on hard courts. Cobolli is favored to win, with a probability of 74.29%, while Galarneau's chances sit at 25.71%. The predicted total number of games played is set at 22.0.

Match Analysis

Flavio Cobolli comes into this match ranked 18th with a solid form index of 61.08 and an Elo rating of 1417.64. His surface strength index of 9.95 indicates a strong performance on hard courts. Notably, Cobolli has a mean serve index of 96.75, which is significantly higher than Galarneau's 93.29, giving him a clear edge in this department. His return index also surpasses Galarneau's at 88.24 compared to 87.16, though the difference is less than 5 points. Additionally, Cobolli is currently at zero cumulative fatigue, suggesting he is well-rested for this encounter. Conversely, Alexis Galarneau, ranked 198th, has been struggling with a form index of 30.99 and an Elo rating of 319.66. His cumulative fatigue of 96 minutes from previous matches could hinder his performance. In his last three matches, Galarneau secured a victory against Arthur Rinderknech but faced defeats against Matteo Martineau and Pavel Kotov, indicating inconsistency. Cobolli's recent performances include a win against Yoshihito Nishioka and losses to higher-ranked players like Frances Tiafoe and Novak Djokovic, showing he has been competitive against tough opponents.

Final Prediction

Cobolli's higher rank, superior serve capabilities, and lack of fatigue position him as the clear favorite in this matchup. One key factor to monitor will be how effectively Galarneau can handle Cobolli's serve, as this could significantly impact the match's outcome.

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