Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 16

Flavio Cobolli vs Ben Shelton Prediction

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #18
39%
VS

Ben Shelton

Rank: #8
61%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

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Ranking Trends

Flavio Cobolli

  • Current #18 2025-07-21
  • 3 mo ago #36 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #34 2025-01-27
  • 9 mo ago #32 2024-10-28
  • 12 mo ago #48 2024-07-29

Ben Shelton

  • Current #8 2025-07-21
  • 3 mo ago #13 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #14 2025-01-27
  • 9 mo ago #19 2024-10-28
  • 12 mo ago #14 2024-07-29

Player Metrics

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 61.2
ELO Rating: 1427.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1673.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 258.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.1
Clay: 13.1
Grass: 11.6
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 88.3

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 66.1
ELO Rating: 1640.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1727.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 221.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.3
Clay: 15.6
Grass: 15.9
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 84.0

Recent Matches

Flavio Cobolli
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Ben Shelton
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Flavio Cobolli
vs
1
Ben Shelton
Hard
1 - 1
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto, Flavio Cobolli will face Ben Shelton on hard courts. The prediction favors Shelton as the winner, with a probability of 61.42% compared to Cobolli's 38.58%. The match is expected to have a total of around 23 games played.

Match Analysis

Ben Shelton, currently ranked 8th, has a higher Elo rating of 1640 compared to Cobolli's 1427. Both players exhibit reasonable form, with Shelton holding a form index of 66.06, slightly ahead of Cobolli's 61.20. Notably, Shelton demonstrates superior surface strength (13.34) over Cobolli (10.14), which may grant him an advantage on hard courts. Fatigue levels are also a consideration, with Cobolli having accumulated 258 minutes of play compared to Shelton's 221 minutes, potentially impacting Cobolli's performance. In their last three matches, Cobolli secured victories against Fabian Marozsan and Alexis Galarneau but suffered a defeat to Frances Tiafoe. Conversely, Shelton has shown solid form, winning against Brandon Nakashima and Adrian Mannarino, though he had a setback against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. The consistency in Shelton's recent performances, particularly his 2-1 win over Nakashima in their last outing, underlines his readiness for this confrontation.

Final Prediction

Shelton's higher rank, better Elo rating, and stronger performance metrics give him a significant edge heading into this match. A key factor to watch will be how each player's serve holds up, especially given the close mean serve indices, with Cobolli at 96.76 and Shelton at 96.50, indicating that both players can generate strong serves.

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