Washington DC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Prediction

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #18
53%
VS

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #11
47%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

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Ranking Trends

Flavio Cobolli

  • Current #18 2025-07-21
  • 3 mo ago #36 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #32 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #31 2024-10-21
  • 12 mo ago #48 2024-07-22

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current #11 2025-07-21
  • 3 mo ago #17 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #16 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #15 2024-10-21
  • 12 mo ago #29 2024-07-22

Player Metrics

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 77.4
ELO Rating: 1431.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1667.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 89.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.0
Clay: 13.1
Grass: 11.6
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 88.2

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 68.8
ELO Rating: 1550.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1704.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 115.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.1
Clay: 14.4
Grass: 19.9
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Flavio Cobolli
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Frances Tiafoe
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Flavio Cobolli
vs
1
Frances Tiafoe
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Washington tournament, Flavio Cobolli is set to face Frances Tiafoe on hard courts. The prediction favors Cobolli with a slight edge, holding a probability of 52.72% for victory, while Tiafoe has a 47.28% chance of winning. The anticipated total number of games played in this match is 24.0.

Match Analysis

Flavio Cobolli, currently ranked 18th, displays a solid form index of 77.41, which suggests he is performing well recently. His Elo rating stands at 1431.81, while he has a cumulative fatigue of 89 minutes from the tournament. Cobolli's surface strength index of 9.99 indicates he is reasonably competent on hard courts. In terms of serve and return, Cobolli's mean serve index is 96.74, providing him with a slight advantage over Tiafoe, whose mean serve index is 95.70. Additionally, Cobolli has a better mean return index of 88.18 compared to Tiafoe’s 86.67, showcasing his ability to counter Tiafoe's serves. Frances Tiafoe, ranked 11th, shows a form index of 68.77 and a higher Elo rating at 1550.50, yet he carries more fatigue at 115 minutes. Tiafoe's recent performances include a victory in his last match against Aleksandar Kovacevic, where he won 2-1, but he faced setbacks against Cameron Norrie, losing 1-3. In contrast, Cobolli secured a straightforward win against Yoshihito Nishioka in his last match, demonstrating his current strong form.

Final Prediction

Cobolli's slight edge in both serve and return indices, coupled with his recent strong performance, positions him favorably in this matchup. A critical factor to observe will be how each player manages their fatigue levels, particularly Tiafoe, as it could significantly influence their endurance in this hard-fought contest.

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