Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #22
57%
VS

Ignacio Buse

Rank: #62
43%
Expected Total Games: 26.4
Predicted Winner: Frances Tiafoe

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Ranking Trends

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current #22 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #30 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #29 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #14 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #16 2025-05-05

Ignacio Buse

  • Current #62 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #98 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #109 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #140 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #171 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 39.9
ELO Rating: 1828.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1854.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.2
Clay: 28.7
Grass: 15.9
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 92.0

Ignacio Buse

Form Index: 42.6
ELO Rating: 1597.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1643.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 101.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.2
Clay: 15.0
Grass: 6.6
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Frances Tiafoe
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Ignacio Buse
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Frances Tiafoe
vs
0
Ignacio Buse
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Rome Masters 1000 first-round clash on clay pits world No. 22 Frances Tiafoe against No. 62 Ignacio Buse in the round of 64 in Italy. The model gives Tiafoe the edge — predicted winner with a 56.63% chance, while Buse sits at 43.37%, and the match is forecast to produce about 26.36 games.

Match Analysis

Tiafoe arrives with a higher ranking (22) and a substantially higher Elo (1828.9) than Buse (Elo 1597.4). His surface strength index (28.71) is roughly double Buse’s 14.99, and his mean return index (≈91.99) is marginally stronger than Buse’s (≈87.75). Form indexes are similar (Tiafoe 39.92, Buse 42.57). The most notable physical difference is fatigue: Tiafoe has 0 minutes logged in this event, while Buse comes in with 101 minutes already on court in Rome, which could matter over long clay rallies. Over their recent three-match stretches, Tiafoe’s clay lead-up shows two wins and a three-set loss in Houston, with lengthy matches (148–167 minutes) indicating match toughness. Buse has also been solid on clay: two wins in Madrid and Rome and one three-set loss in Madrid, including a straight-sets victory over Lorenzo Sonego in Rome (101 minutes). Both players have shown consistency, but Tiafoe’s higher Elo and better surface index underline a slight quality advantage.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.4 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Frances Tiafoe - Ignacio Buse) +1.0 Most likely spread: +1 (Frances Tiafoe wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 10.23 for the match while the predicted double faults total is 4.66. On clay, slower speeds and higher bounce typically reduce ace opportunities and can increase unforced serving errors as matches lengthen; that aligns with the expected aces and expected double faults here. Neither player has a dramatically superior serve rating (mean serve indices are very close), so the projected ace count should be modest rather than skewed heavily toward one man.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.2 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.7 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

43.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Frances Tiafoe's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (38.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tiafoe’s higher ranking, stronger Elo and better clay profile give him a narrow but clear edge in Rome. Watch how fatigue and return efficiency influence pivotal service games — Buse’s minutes on court and Tiafoe’s return index are likely to decide the tight margins.

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