Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 64

Frances Tiafoe vs Pablo Carreno Busta Prediction

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #16
69%
VS

Pablo Carreno Busta

Rank: #98
31%
Expected Total Games: 35.0
Predicted Winner: Frances Tiafoe

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Ranking Trends

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current #16 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #18 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #18 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #20 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #26 2024-05-27

Pablo Carreno Busta

  • Current #98 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #112 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #198 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #213 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #1049 2024-05-27

Player Metrics

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 55.4
ELO Rating: 1553.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1695.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.1
Clay: 14.0
Grass: 20.8
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 86.8

Pablo Carreno Busta

Form Index: 52.0
ELO Rating: 500.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1506.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.4
Clay: 3.9
Grass: 2.9
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 86.3

Recent Matches

Frances Tiafoe
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Pablo Carreno Busta
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Frances Tiafoe
vs
0
Pablo Carreno Busta
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at Roland Garros, Frances Tiafoe faces Pablo Carreno Busta on the challenging clay surface. Tiafoe is predicted to emerge victorious with a win probability of 69.13%, while Carreno Busta's chances stand at 30.87%. The match is expected to be competitive, with a predicted total of 35 games played.

Match Analysis

Frances Tiafoe, currently ranked 16, holds a form index of 55.39 and an Elo rating of 1553.52, indicating solid performance levels. His fatigue level stands at 174 minutes, which is the same as his opponent. Tiafoe’s surface strength index of 13.97 is significantly higher than Carreno Busta’s 3.92, showcasing his superior adaptability on clay. Furthermore, Tiafoe's mean serve index of 97.52 exceeds Carreno Busta’s 94.58 by more than 5 points, suggesting a stronger serve, while their mean return indices are closely matched. In their last three matches, Tiafoe has shown a mixed bag of results, winning against Roman Safiullin but losing to Roberto Bautista Agut in Hamburg. His recent victory at Roland Garros reflects a positive trajectory. Conversely, Carreno Busta, ranked 98, has also had a challenging time, with a recent win against Francisco Comesana but losses to Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Roman Andres Burruchaga in Rome, indicating inconsistency in his form.

Final Prediction

Tiafoe's combination of higher ranking, superior serve, and better surface strength gives him a distinct edge in this matchup. A key factor to monitor will be how effectively Tiafoe can leverage his serve against Carreno Busta's return game, as this may dictate the flow and outcome of the match.

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