Andrey Rublev vs Gabriel Diallo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Rublev arrives as the higher-ranked and higher-Elo player (No. 18, Elo 2284.8) with a substantially stronger form index (58.29) than Diallo (rank 41, Elo 1028.5, form 24.82). He is also notably fresher in tournament terms (0 minutes on court this week versus Diallo’s 133 minutes), and his surface strength index on hard courts is higher (12.17 vs 7.80). Those factors combine to favor Rublev’s consistency from the baseline and his ability to sustain intensity throughout the match. Diallo brings striking serve and return metrics — his mean serve index (98.27) exceeds Rublev’s (76.90) by more than 20 points, and his mean return index (88.62) is also markedly higher than Rublev’s (56.27). That contrast suggests Diallo can generate free points and apply pressure on serve, but his relatively low form index and accumulated fatigue from earlier rounds temper that upside. Over the last three matches Rublev has won two of three in Dubai before a recent loss to Tallon Griekspoor, while Diallo’s recent win at Indian Wells over Mattia Bellucci follows two straight defeats in prior tournaments.