Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Hamad Medjedovic vs Alex de Minaur: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Hamad Medjedovic

Rank: #96
31%
VS

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #6
69%
Expected Total Games: 38.7
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

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Player Metrics

Hamad Medjedovic

Form Index: 70.1
ELO Rating: 800.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1564.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.4
Clay: 6.2
Grass: 4.7
Serve Rating: 82.6
Return Rating: 50.6

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 76.7
ELO Rating: 4080.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1854.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 95.3
Clay: 95.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 91.3

Recent Matches

Hamad Medjedovic

Alex de Minaur

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hamad Medjedovic
vs
0
Alex de Minaur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 64 at the Australian Open sees Hamad Medjedovic face off against Alex de Minaur on hard courts in Australia. De Minaur is the favorite to win this match, holding a probability of 69.44%, while Medjedovic stands at 30.56%. The expected total number of games in this contest is approximately 38.72.

Match Analysis

Hamad Medjedovic is currently ranked 96, with a form index of 70.15 and an Elo rating of 800.41. His fatigue level stands at 174 minutes, indicating he has been on court for a considerable amount of time in this tournament. Medjedovic's surface strength index of 7.39 and mean serve index of 82.60 suggest he has some capability on hard courts, although he struggles with his mean return index of 50.63. In contrast, Alex de Minaur is significantly higher on the rankings at 6, with a form index of 76.70 and an Elo rating of 4080.00. Both players show the same level of fatigue, but de Minaur's surface strength index of 95.27 and mean serve index of 95.97 provide him a notable advantage. The gap in mean serve index exceeds 5 points, indicating a stronger serving capability for de Minaur, while his mean return index of 91.30 also suggests he excels in returning serves. In their recent performances, Medjedovic has won 2 of his last 3 matches, albeit against varying levels of competition, including a victory over Mariano Navone in the Australian Open. However, he also faced a defeat against Jakub Mensik at the Auckland tournament. On the other hand, de Minaur has also won 2 of his last 3 matches, including a strong performance against Mackenzie McDonald in the first round of the Australian Open, where he did not drop a set.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.7 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Hamad Medjedovic versus Alex de Minaur. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Hamad Medjedovic versus Alex de Minaur. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Hamad Medjedovic - Alex de Minaur) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Hamad Medjedovic versus Alex de Minaur. Positive values indicate Hamad Medjedovic winning more games, negative values indicate Alex de Minaur winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Hamad Medjedovic versus Alex de Minaur. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is projected to feature approximately 12.95 predicted aces and 4.17 expected double faults. Given the medium-paced hard court surface, the ace count is expected to be moderate, benefiting both players' serving strengths. De Minaur's superior serve rating could significantly influence the aces prediction, possibly leading to a higher ace count in his favor.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.9 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.2 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Hamad Medjedovic versus Alex de Minaur. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Hamad Medjedovic versus Alex de Minaur. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Hamad Medjedovic versus Alex de Minaur. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Hamad Medjedovic versus Alex de Minaur. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Alex de Minaur's higher ranking, stronger serve, and superior return capabilities grant him a clear edge heading into this match. One key factor to watch will be how effectively Medjedovic can handle de Minaur's serve, as this could determine the match's flow and outcome.

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