Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Hamad Medjedovic vs Holger Rune Prediction

Hamad Medjedovic

Rank: #66
43%
VS

Holger Rune

Rank: #11
57%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Holger Rune

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Ranking Trends

Hamad Medjedovic

  • Current #66 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #73 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #73 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #114 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #135 2024-09-23

Holger Rune

  • Current #11 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #8 2025-06-23
  • 6 mo ago #12 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #13 2024-12-23
  • 12 mo ago #14 2024-09-23

Player Metrics

Hamad Medjedovic

Form Index: 52.4
ELO Rating: 988.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1605.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.1
Clay: 7.0
Grass: 4.8
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 85.8

Holger Rune

Form Index: 54.0
ELO Rating: 1922.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1815.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.7
Clay: 20.6
Grass: 21.9
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 84.9

Recent Matches

Hamad Medjedovic
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Holger Rune
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Terence Atmane (0-2) hard Cincinnati 73 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Frances Tiafoe (2-0) hard Cincinnati 72 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Michelsen (2-0) hard Cincinnati 93 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hamad Medjedovic
vs
0
Holger Rune
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Tokyo tournament, set on hard courts, Hamad Medjedovic faces Holger Rune. With a predicted total of 23 games to be played, Rune is favored to win with a probability of 57.13%, while Medjedovic has a 42.87% chance of victory.

Match Analysis

Hamad Medjedovic, currently ranked 66, has a form index of 52.37 and an Elo rating of approximately 989. His surface strength index of 10.07 indicates that he is still developing his game on hard surfaces. Notably, his mean serve index of 97.47 is significantly higher than Rune's 95.44, showcasing his ability to serve effectively. However, his mean return index of 85.79 is lower than Rune's 84.95, which could be a disadvantage in returning powerful serves. On the other hand, Holger Rune, ranked 11, boasts a higher form index of 53.98 and an impressive Elo rating of about 1923, indicating his position as a competitive player. Both players have shown resilience, but Rune's recent performances reflect a mix of challenges, including a tough match against Jan-Lennard Struff where he lost in a close five-set battle. In contrast, Medjedovic's last match resulted in a defeat, although he secured victories in his previous two matches before that.

Final Prediction

Holger Rune appears to have the edge due to his higher ranking and overall experience in high-stakes matches. Keep an eye on Medjedovic's serving capability, as his strong serve could potentially level the playing field against Rune's more established return game.

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