Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Hamad Medjedovic

Rank: #67
46%
VS

Joao Fonseca

Rank: #29
54%
Expected Total Games: 26.3
Predicted Winner: Joao Fonseca

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Hamad Medjedovic

  • Current #67 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #80 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #65 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #72 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #72 2025-05-05

Joao Fonseca

  • Current #29 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #34 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #24 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #52 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #65 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Hamad Medjedovic

Form Index: 59.2
ELO Rating: 1697.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1754.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 102.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.6
Clay: 24.0
Grass: 7.4
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 91.3

Joao Fonseca

Form Index: 41.2
ELO Rating: 1754.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1807.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 35.3
Clay: 24.7
Grass: 19.8
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Hamad Medjedovic
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (2-0) clay Rome 102 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Andrey Rublev (1-2) clay Barcelona 118 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Nuno Borges (2-0) clay Barcelona 94 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (2-0) clay Barcelona 95 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Marco Trungelliti (2-0) clay Barcelona 90 min

Joao Fonseca
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hamad Medjedovic
vs
0
Joao Fonseca
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rome, Italy — round of 64 at the clay Masters 1000 in 2026 sees Hamad Medjedovic face Joao Fonseca. The model gives Fonseca the narrow edge: Joao Fonseca 53.88% to Hamad Medjedovic 46.12%, with a projected total of about 26.26 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Medjedovic arrives ranked 67 with a higher recent form index (59.23) and an Elo of 1697.1. He carries 102 minutes of court time in this event, reflecting match play in the first round in Rome, and posts a low surface strength index on clay (24.02). His serve and return indices are strong (mean serve 96.62, mean return 91.33), indicating capability to dictate on service and to pressure opponents’ serves. Over his last three matches on clay he is 2-1: wins against Valentin Royer and Nuno Borges and a straight-sets defeat to Andrey Rublev in Barcelona, with matches ranging 94–118 minutes. Fonseca is the higher-ranked player at 29 with a superior Elo (1754.08) but a lower form index (41.18). He arrives fresh with 0 minutes logged in this tournament and a comparable clay strength index (24.67). His mean serve index (94.80) and return index (86.67) show solid baseline tools though a touch below Medjedovic’s returning metrics. Recent results on clay read 1-2 in his last three: a good win over Arthur Rinderknech in Munich and losses to Ben Shelton and Rafael Jodar, with match lengths up to 127 minutes.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.3 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Hamad Medjedovic - Joao Fonseca) -0.3 Most likely spread: -1 (Joao Fonseca wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 11.9 for the match while the predicted aces per player will be contained by the slow clay surface. The expected double faults tally is 5.86, and the double faults prediction reflects clay’s tendency to produce fewer outright free points but more service pressure as rallies extend. Medjedovic’s marginally higher serve index may nudge his share of the predicted aces upward, but surface conditions should limit big-server outcomes.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.9 Most likely: 11 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

43.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Hamad Medjedovic's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (33.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fonseca’s higher ranking and Elo, combined with being physically fresh, give him a slight edge in this projected tight affair. Watch how Medjedovic’s return game and Fonseca’s ability to hold serve under extended rallies determine whether the match stays short or stretches into longer sets.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel