Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz Prediction

Novak Djokovic

Rank: #11
54%
VS

Hubert Hurkacz

Rank: #34
46%
Expected Total Games: 25.6
Predicted Winner: Novak Djokovic

Why the Model Favors Novak Djokovic

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +7.7 Novak Djokovic
Surface fit +5.4 Novak Djokovic
Age +5.0 Hubert Hurkacz
Serve & return game +3.7 Hubert Hurkacz
Overall record & opposition quality +1.0 Novak Djokovic

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 54% for Novak Djokovic. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Novak Djokovic

  • Current #11 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #7 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #4 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #4 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #5 2025-09-29

Hubert Hurkacz

  • Current #34 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #96 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #74 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #83 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #78 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Novak Djokovic

Form Index: 47.0
ELO Rating: 2018.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2002.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 49.4
Clay: 41.0
Grass: 54.5
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 90.5

Hubert Hurkacz

Form Index: 64.7
ELO Rating: 1807.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1787.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 82.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 32.6
Clay: 23.1
Grass: 20.7
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 85.5

Recent Matches

Novak Djokovic
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Hubert Hurkacz
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Novak Djokovic
vs
0
Hubert Hurkacz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Djokovic is a slight favorite, at 54% to Hurkacz’s 46%, with 25.6 games expected. This Shanghai Round of 64 is played on hard courts, where Djokovic’s stronger surface fit helps explain the narrow lean.

Match Analysis

Djokovic has the stronger overall profile and is the better returner, giving him more ways to challenge Hurkacz’s service games and extend rallies. His stronger fit on hard courts adds to that advantage, even with the forecast close. Hurkacz’s age advantage and serve help keep him in contention. He comes off a straight-sets win over James Duckworth in Shanghai, and his serve-and-return game is a counterweight to Djokovic’s broader strengths.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.6 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Novak Djokovic - Hubert Hurkacz) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Hurkacz is projected to hit 11.5 aces, compared with 8.5 for Djokovic. Double faults are close, at 2.3 for Hurkacz and 2.4 for Djokovic, with Hurkacz’s serve expected to create more free points while Djokovic’s stronger return can blunt that threat.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.2 Most likely: 17 aces Per player: Novak Djokovic 8.5 + Hubert Hurkacz 11.5
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.7 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Novak Djokovic 2.4 + Hubert Hurkacz 2.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Novak Djokovic

Expected 8.5 aces

Hubert Hurkacz

Expected 11.5 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Novak Djokovic

Expected 2.4 double faults

Hubert Hurkacz

Expected 2.3 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

50.0% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Novak Djokovic's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (31.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hurkacz’s serve is the specific threat that could flip the forecast. If it consistently keeps Djokovic from applying pressure on return, the narrow gap between them may matter.

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