Bastad Sweden Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Hugo Gaston vs Damir Dzumhur Prediction

Hugo Gaston

Rank: #86
52%
VS

Damir Dzumhur

Rank: #67
48%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Hugo Gaston

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Ranking Trends

Hugo Gaston

  • Current #86 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #82 2025-04-14
  • 6 mo ago #81 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #77 2024-10-14
  • 12 mo ago #81 2024-07-15

Damir Dzumhur

  • Current #67 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #65 2025-04-14
  • 6 mo ago #82 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #100 2024-10-14
  • 12 mo ago #107 2024-07-15

Player Metrics

Hugo Gaston

Form Index: 38.9
ELO Rating: 720.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1556.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 78.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.5
Clay: 7.3
Grass: 6.0
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 89.6

Damir Dzumhur

Form Index: 34.0
ELO Rating: 877.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1557.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 87.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.6
Clay: 8.0
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 89.5

Recent Matches

Hugo Gaston
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Damir Dzumhur
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Ofner (2-0) clay Bastad 87 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Rinderknech (1-2) grass Mallorca 151 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert (0-2) grass Stuttgart 54 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hugo Gaston
vs
0
Damir Dzumhur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Bastad tournament in Sweden, Hugo Gaston is set to face Damir Dzumhur on clay. The match promises to be competitive, with Gaston slightly favored to win at a probability of 52.07%, compared to Dzumhur's 47.93%. The predicted total number of games played is estimated at 22.

Match Analysis

Hugo Gaston, currently ranked 86, has a form index of 38.92 and an Elo rating of 720.81. His cumulative fatigue stands at 78 minutes, which is lower than Dzumhur’s. Gaston possesses a surface strength index of 7.25 and a mean serve index of 96.60, indicating a solid serving ability. His mean return index of 89.60 is marginally higher than Dzumhur's, who has a return index of 89.48. Dzumhur ranks 67 with a form index of 34.00 and a higher Elo rating of 877.69. However, his cumulative fatigue is at 87 minutes, suggesting he may feel more drained going into this match. In their recent performances, Gaston showed strength by winning his last match against Chun-Hsin Tseng without dropping a set. However, he faced challenges in his previous outings at Wimbledon. Dzumhur, on the other hand, also secured a straight-set victory against Sebastian Ofner in his last match but struggled considerably in his two matches prior, where he failed to win a set. This recent form indicates Gaston has a slight edge in momentum.

Final Prediction

Hugo Gaston's slight advantage in serve and return indices, along with better recent performance, positions him as the favored player in this matchup. One key factor to monitor will be how Gaston manages his fatigue levels, as both players are approaching the tournament's physical demands similarly.

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