Hamburg Germany Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #12
68%
VS

Ignacio Buse

Rank: #62
32%
Expected Total Games: 24.2
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

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Ranking Trends

Flavio Cobolli

  • Current #12 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #20 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #22 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #26 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #35 2025-05-19

Ignacio Buse

  • Current #62 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #91 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #105 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #136 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #177 2025-05-19

Player Metrics

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 42.6
ELO Rating: 1794.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1820.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.5
Clay: 32.5
Grass: 29.9
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 92.3

Ignacio Buse

Form Index: 46.1
ELO Rating: 1614.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1655.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 140.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.2
Clay: 16.1
Grass: 6.6
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Flavio Cobolli
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Ignacio Buse
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Gaston (2-0) clay Hamburg 71 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Niels McDonald (2-0) clay Hamburg 69 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (1-2) clay Rome 163 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-0) clay Rome 101 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Fils (1-2) clay Madrid 170 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Flavio Cobolli
vs
0
Ignacio Buse
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Hamburg on clay, Round of 32 at the 500-level event, Flavio Cobolli meets Ignacio Buse in a matchup that pits a top-15 seed against an in-form lower-ranked challenger. The model projects Cobolli to prevail (67.71% chance) with Buse at 32.29%, and a predicted total of about 24.2 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Cobolli arrives as the clear higher-ranked player (No. 12) with an Elo of 1794.4, a form index of 42.6 and no cumulative fatigue from the tournament so far. His surface strength index on clay (32.5) is modest but well above Buse’s 16.1, suggesting Cobolli is more comfortable on slow courts. Buse, ranked 62 with an Elo of 1614.6 and a slightly better form index (46.1), brings 140 minutes of fatigue accumulated in Hamburg — a non-trivial factor on demanding clay. Both players register strong serve metrics (Cobolli mean serve 95.52, Buse 94.83) and solid return numbers (Cobolli 92.29, Buse 88.39); none of those gaps exceed five points, so serve/return balance should remain broadly comparable. Over the last three matches Cobolli is 1-2, beating Terence Atmane in Rome but falling to Zverev and Tirante. Buse has recent momentum in Hamburg, 2-0 at the venue with wins over Hugo Gaston and Niels McDonald after a three-set loss to Frances Tiafoe in Rome.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Flavio Cobolli - Ignacio Buse) +2.0 Most likely spread: +2 (Flavio Cobolli wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 7.22 for the match while the predicted double faults total 4.61. On clay, expected aces are typically suppressed and the slower surface can increase expected double faults as rallies and physical demands grow; those trends align with these numbers. Neither player posts a significantly higher serve rating, so the predicted aces are likely to be shared rather than dominated by one server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 7.2 Most likely: 7 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.6 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Flavio Cobolli's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (48.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cobolli’s higher ranking, superior Elo and lack of tournament fatigue give him the edge on paper, especially over longer exchanges on clay. The key factor to watch will be Buse’s energy levels late in sets — if fatigue bites, Cobolli’s edge in consistency and clay competence should decide the match.

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