London Great Britain Grass Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper Prediction

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #32
41%
VS

Jack Draper

Rank: #6
59%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Jack Draper

Ranking Trends

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current Rank: #32 (2025-06-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #32 (2025-03-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #38 (2024-12-16)
  • 9 Months Ago: #39 (2024-09-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #63 (2024-06-17)

Jack Draper

  • Current Rank: #6 (2025-06-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #7 (2025-03-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #15 (2024-12-16)
  • 9 Months Ago: #20 (2024-09-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #31 (2024-06-17)

Player Metrics

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 56.5
ELO Rating: 1247.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1590.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 266.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.4
Clay: 10.6
Grass: 12.2
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 84.0

Jack Draper

Form Index: 74.2
ELO Rating: 2624.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1704.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 210.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.3
Clay: 19.8
Grass: 23.1
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 87.2

Recent Matches

Brandon Nakashima
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Evans (2-0) grass London 115 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (2-1) grass London 151 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) grass Stuttgart 90 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (2-0) grass Stuttgart 90 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jacob Fearnley (2-1) grass Stuttgart 113 min

Jack Draper
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alexei Popyrin (2-1) grass London 133 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (2-0) grass London 77 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Joao Fonseca (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Gael Monfils (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Brandon Nakashima
vs
1
Jack Draper
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

The quarterfinals of the ATP 500 tournament in London features a compelling match between Brandon Nakashima and Jack Draper on grass. With a predicted winner of Jack Draper, he holds a 59.18% probability of winning compared to Nakashima's 40.82%. The forecasted number of total games in this encounter is set at 23.0.

Match Analysis

Currently ranked 32, Brandon Nakashima has a form index of 56.5 and an Elo rating of 1247.27, indicating a solid baseline performance. However, his cumulative fatigue of 266 minutes on court may impact his stamina in this match. Nakashima possesses a surface strength index of 12.17, while his mean serve index is slightly higher at 98.11, compared to his mean return index of 84.03. Jack Draper, positioned at rank 6, boasts a significantly higher form index of 74.19 and an impressive Elo rating of 2624.93, reflecting his strong capabilities on grass. Draper's cumulative fatigue is lower at 210 minutes, and he has a stronger surface strength index of 23.11. Notably, Draper also has a higher mean return index at 87.16, which is over 5 points greater than Nakashima’s return index. In their recent performances, Nakashima has won two of his last three matches, including a convincing victory against Daniel Evans in the last round. His only loss came against Alexander Zverev in Stuttgart. On the other hand, Draper has shown excellent form, winning his last two matches in London, including a competitive encounter against Alexei Popyrin. His only recent defeat came at Roland Garros against Alexander Bublik, where he performed admirably despite the loss.

Final Prediction

Jack Draper’s edge comes from his higher ranking, significantly better recent form, and lower fatigue level, which should enhance his performance. A key factor to observe will be the effectiveness of Draper’s return game, which could play a crucial role in determining the match outcome.