Brussels Belgium Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Jacob Fearnley vs Hugo Gaston Prediction

Jacob Fearnley

Rank: #87
46%
VS

Hugo Gaston

Rank: #93
54%
Expected Total Games: 23.3
Predicted Winner: Hugo Gaston

Why the Model Favors Hugo Gaston

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +6.8 Hugo Gaston
Serve & return game +4.3 Hugo Gaston
Recent record by level +4.0 Jacob Fearnley
Surface fit +1.6 Jacob Fearnley
Fatigue & recent workload +1.0 Jacob Fearnley

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 54% for Hugo Gaston. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Jacob Fearnley

  • Current #87 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #121 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #110 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #77 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #81 2025-10-20

Hugo Gaston

  • Current #93 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #109 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #115 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #93 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #113 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Jacob Fearnley

Form Index: 37.5
ELO Rating: 1592.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1582.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.6
Clay: 18.8
Grass: 10.1
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 90.0

Hugo Gaston

Form Index: 40.1
ELO Rating: 1606.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1601.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.1
Clay: 13.2
Grass: 13.2
Serve Rating: 93.6
Return Rating: 88.2

Recent Matches

Jacob Fearnley
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Hugo Gaston
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jacob Fearnley
vs
0
Hugo Gaston
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Gaston is a narrow favourite at 54% against Fearnley’s 46%, with 23.3 games expected. The forecast is close, leaving Fearnley a substantial chance to turn it around.

Match Analysis

Recent form gives Gaston a small lift, though both have won once in their last three matches. Gaston’s stretch included a win over Jaime Faria, while Fearnley’s sole victory was against Martin Landaluce. The serve-and-return balance also leans Gaston, but the gap is modest. Fearnley’s better fit on hard courts and stronger recent record by tournament level provide a counterweight. Their rankings are close too, with Fearnley 87th and Gaston 93rd.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.3 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jacob Fearnley - Hugo Gaston) -0.7 Most likely spread: -1 (Hugo Gaston wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Fearnley is projected for 5.1 aces and 5.5 double faults, compared with Gaston’s 2.5 aces and 3.3 double faults. Fearnley’s slightly stronger serving profile fits his higher ace projection, though the expected double faults make serve control important for both.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 7.6 Most likely: 5 aces Per player: Jacob Fearnley 5.1 + Hugo Gaston 2.5
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.6 Most likely: 7 double faults Per player: Jacob Fearnley 5.5 + Hugo Gaston 3.2

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Jacob Fearnley

Expected 5.1 aces

Hugo Gaston

Expected 2.5 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Jacob Fearnley

Expected 5.5 double faults

Hugo Gaston

Expected 3.2 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

35.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jacob Fearnley's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (29.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fearnley’s projected ace advantage gives him a specific way to shift this close match, provided he can limit the double faults.

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