Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Jacob Fearnley vs Stan Wawrinka Prediction

Jacob Fearnley

Rank: #57
53%
VS

Stan Wawrinka

Rank: #132
47%
Predicted Games Played: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Jacob Fearnley

Ranking Trends

Jacob Fearnley

  • Current Rank: #57 (2025-05-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #81 (2025-02-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #98 (2024-11-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #158 (2024-08-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #522 (2024-05-27)

Stan Wawrinka

  • Current Rank: #132 (2025-05-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #163 (2025-02-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #161 (2024-11-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #176 (2024-08-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #98 (2024-05-27)

Player Metrics

Jacob Fearnley

Form Index: 43.1
ELO Rating: 790.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1541.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.6
Clay: 6.7
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 88.6

Stan Wawrinka

Form Index: 21.4
ELO Rating: 422.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1574.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.1
Clay: 3.5
Grass: 3.5
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 85.6

Recent Matches

Jacob Fearnley
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alexei Popyrin (0-2) clay Geneva 70 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Dusan Lajovic (2-0) clay Geneva 72 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Matteo Berrettini (0-2) clay Rome 116 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Fabio Fognini (2-0) clay Rome 80 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Grigor Dimitrov (0-2) clay Madrid 117 min

Stan Wawrinka
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0-2) clay Barcelona 71 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 147 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Pedro Martinez (1-2) clay Bucharest 159 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Timofey Skatov (2-1) clay Bucharest 198 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Quentin Halys (1-2) hard Doha 123 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jacob Fearnley
vs
0
Stan Wawrinka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

As the 2025 Roland Garros tournament progresses to the Round of 128, Jacob Fearnley is set to face off against Stan Wawrinka on the clay courts of France. With a slight edge in predicted outcomes, Fearnley is forecasted to win with a probability of 53.45%, while Wawrinka's chances stand at 46.55%. The match is anticipated to be competitive, with a predicted total of 36 games played.

Match Analysis

Jacob Fearnley, currently ranked 57, possesses a form index of 43.13 and an Elo rating of 790.50. His surface strength index of 6.72 reflects a solid adaptation to clay, complemented by a mean serve index of 96.48 and a mean return index of 88.61. In contrast, Stan Wawrinka, ranked 132, has a lower form index of 21.42 and an Elo rating of 422.70. His surface strength index is significantly lower at 3.46, with a mean serve index of 96.13 and a mean return index of 85.65. Notably, Fearnley holds a superior mean return index, which could be pivotal in dictating the tempo of rallies. Examining their recent performances, Fearnley has experienced mixed results, losing his last match against Alexei Popyrin but winning prior against Dusan Lajovic. Wawrinka has struggled, losing all three of his last matches, including a recent defeat to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in Barcelona. This trend of form may play a crucial role in the upcoming encounter, as Fearnley appears to have a slight momentum advantage despite facing tough competition.

Final Prediction

Fearnley is favored to win due to his higher ranking, better recent form, and superior return capabilities, which could exploit Wawrinka's vulnerabilities. A key factor to monitor will be how Fearnley utilizes his strong return game to pressure Wawrinka, potentially leading to crucial breaks of serve in the match.