Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Jacob Fearnley vs Stan Wawrinka Prediction

Jacob Fearnley

Rank: #57
53%
VS

Stan Wawrinka

Rank: #132
47%
Expected Total Games: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Jacob Fearnley

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Ranking Trends

Jacob Fearnley

  • Current #57 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #81 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #98 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #158 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #522 2024-05-27

Stan Wawrinka

  • Current #132 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #163 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #161 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #176 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #98 2024-05-27

Player Metrics

Jacob Fearnley

Form Index: 43.1
ELO Rating: 790.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1541.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.6
Clay: 6.7
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 88.6

Stan Wawrinka

Form Index: 21.4
ELO Rating: 422.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1574.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.1
Clay: 3.5
Grass: 3.5
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 85.6

Recent Matches

Jacob Fearnley
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Stan Wawrinka
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jacob Fearnley
vs
0
Stan Wawrinka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

As the 2025 Roland Garros tournament progresses to the Round of 128, Jacob Fearnley is set to face off against Stan Wawrinka on the clay courts of France. With a slight edge in predicted outcomes, Fearnley is forecasted to win with a probability of 53.45%, while Wawrinka's chances stand at 46.55%. The match is anticipated to be competitive, with a predicted total of 36 games played.

Match Analysis

Jacob Fearnley, currently ranked 57, possesses a form index of 43.13 and an Elo rating of 790.50. His surface strength index of 6.72 reflects a solid adaptation to clay, complemented by a mean serve index of 96.48 and a mean return index of 88.61. In contrast, Stan Wawrinka, ranked 132, has a lower form index of 21.42 and an Elo rating of 422.70. His surface strength index is significantly lower at 3.46, with a mean serve index of 96.13 and a mean return index of 85.65. Notably, Fearnley holds a superior mean return index, which could be pivotal in dictating the tempo of rallies. Examining their recent performances, Fearnley has experienced mixed results, losing his last match against Alexei Popyrin but winning prior against Dusan Lajovic. Wawrinka has struggled, losing all three of his last matches, including a recent defeat to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in Barcelona. This trend of form may play a crucial role in the upcoming encounter, as Fearnley appears to have a slight momentum advantage despite facing tough competition.

Final Prediction

Fearnley is favored to win due to his higher ranking, better recent form, and superior return capabilities, which could exploit Wawrinka's vulnerabilities. A key factor to monitor will be how Fearnley utilizes his strong return game to pressure Wawrinka, potentially leading to crucial breaks of serve in the match.

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