Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Karen Khachanov vs Jakub Mensik: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #16
31%
VS

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #27
69%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

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Ranking Trends

Karen Khachanov

  • Current #16 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #18 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #13 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #16 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #25 2025-04-21

Jakub Mensik

  • Current #27 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #17 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #19 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #17 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #23 2025-04-21

Player Metrics

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 34.7
ELO Rating: 1647.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1661.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 79.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.5
Clay: 43.1
Grass: 47.6
Serve Rating: 74.7
Return Rating: 65.1

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 58.7
ELO Rating: 1837.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1903.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 66.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 61.5
Clay: 43.8
Grass: 44.1
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 89.3

Recent Matches

Karen Khachanov
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Jakub Mensik
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Karen Khachanov
vs
0
Jakub Mensik
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Madrid, clay, Round of 32 at a Masters 1000 — Karen Khachanov faces Jakub Mensik in a contrast of styles and recent momentum. The model favors Jakub Mensik to win (69.06%) over Khachanov (30.94%), with a predicted total of about 23.9 games in the match, suggesting a straight-sets finish is the likeliest outcome.

Match Analysis

Khachanov arrives as the higher-seeded player (rank 16) but his form index (34.65) and Elo (1647.20) lag behind Mensik’s stronger form (58.67) and higher Elo (1837.19). Khachanov carries slightly more on-court minutes this week (79 vs 66) and posts a solid mean serve index (74.65) and competent return index (65.11), while his surface strength index (43.05) is roughly average on clay. Mensik, ranked 27, shows better recent traction and lower cumulative fatigue; his surface strength index is similar (43.84), but his mean serve (97.80) and mean return (89.31) are markedly superior — the differences exceed 5 points and are likely to shape the matchup. Recent form underlines that contrast. Khachanov is 1-2 in his past three matches on clay, most recently beating Adam Walton in Madrid in 79 minutes after earlier defeats in Barcelona and Monte Carlo. Mensik is 2-1 over his last three, with a straight-sets Madrid win over Martin Damm and a resilient showing in Miami, including a tight three-set loss to Frances Tiafoe. The combination of Mensik’s higher Elo and stronger form index points to greater consistency this week.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Karen Khachanov - Jakub Mensik) +1.9 Most likely spread: +2 (Karen Khachanov wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match sits at about 16.7 total, while the expected double faults figure is roughly 6.7. On clay, predicted aces tend to drop because the surface slows the ball and increases bounce, which reduces outright service winners — this moderating effect is reflected in the predicted aces. Given Mensik’s significantly higher serve rating, he is the main driver of the predicted aces total, while expected double faults could rise if rallies become physically demanding late in sets.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.7 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.7 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Mensik’s superior Elo, recent form and standout serve/return indices give him the edge on paper, despite Khachanov’s higher seed and decent serving numbers. Watch Mensik’s serve and second-serve returns early: if he breaks rhythm on Khachanov’s serve, the match should tilt quickly in his favor.

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