Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #18
52%
VS

Learner Tien

Rank: #15
48%
Expected Total Games: 38.4
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

Why the Model Favors Jakub Mensik

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +3.2 Jakub Mensik
Surface fit +0.5 Learner Tien

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 52% for Jakub Mensik. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Jakub Mensik

  • Current #18 2026-08-24
  • 3 mo ago #27 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #12 2026-03-02
  • 9 mo ago #19 2025-12-01
  • 12 mo ago #16 2025-08-25

Learner Tien

  • Current #15 2026-08-24
  • 3 mo ago #18 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #27 2026-03-02
  • 9 mo ago #28 2025-12-01
  • 12 mo ago #50 2025-08-25

Player Metrics

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 60.6
ELO Rating: 1853.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1867.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.9
Clay: 39.9
Grass: 18.9
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 88.8

Learner Tien

Form Index: 62.2
ELO Rating: 1842.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1851.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 43.0
Clay: 27.7
Grass: 15.2
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 88.2

Recent Matches

Jakub Mensik
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Learner Tien
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Gael Monfils (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Nuno Borges (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (1-2) hard Cincinnati 129 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) hard Cincinnati 85 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Toronto 84 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jakub Mensik
vs
0
Learner Tien
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the 2026 US Open in New York, Round of 32 action on hard courts sets up a tight match between Jakub Mensik and Learner Tien in this grand slam. The model gives Mensik the narrow edge, 51.64% to win versus 48.36% for Tien, with an expected total of about 38.4 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Jakub Mensik comes mainly from his recent record at this level, which contributes about 3.2 percentage points to his probability. The surface fit slightly favors Learner Tien, adding about 0.5 points toward Tien, but that is a minor influence compared with recent results. Mensik arrives ranked 18 with a form index of 60.58 and an Elo of 1853. He has accumulated 348 minutes on court in the event, a fatigue figure that matches his opponent. His surface strength index reads 39.87. Tien is ranked 15 with a form index of 62.25 and an Elo of 1843. His surface strength index is 43.01. The mean serve indexes are close, 96.90 for Mensik and 95.09 for Tien, so there is no large serve gap. Mean return indexes are also similar, 88.76 and 88.21 respectively. Both players have been consistent at Flushing Meadows. Mensik beat Jurij Rodionov 3-1 and Shintaro Mochizuki 3-0 earlier in the tournament, after a loss in Cincinnati to Thiago Tirante. Tien’s run includes straight set wins over Gael Monfils and Nuno Borges at the US Open, following a Cincinnati loss to Frances Tiafoe. Those recent two-match surges at this event help explain the tight projection.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.4 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jakub Mensik - Learner Tien) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Learner Tien wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this contest is 18.35 total, with predicted aces split of 12.61 for Mensik and 6.02 for Tien. The double faults prediction calls for 9.53 total double faults, with expected double faults of 4.96 for Mensik and 4.57 for Tien. Hard courts are medium paced with a consistent bounce, so these predicted aces and double faults align with a surface that balances big serving and returning. Because serve ratings are similar, the per player ace projections quantify Mensik’s advantage at 12.61 to 6.02 rather than implying a large serving gap.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.4 Most likely: 16 aces Per player: Jakub Mensik 12.6 + Learner Tien 6.0
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 9.5 Most likely: 8 double faults Per player: Jakub Mensik 5.0 + Learner Tien 4.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Jakub Mensik

Expected 12.6 aces

Learner Tien

Expected 6.0 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Jakub Mensik

Expected 5.0 double faults

Learner Tien

Expected 4.6 double faults

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

47.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jakub Mensik's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (19.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Mensik’s slight favourite status is driven principally by his recent record at this level. A key factor to watch will be serve effectiveness early in the match, since a few free points on serve could swing what is expected to be a close contest.

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