Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

James Duckworth vs Luciano Darderi Prediction

James Duckworth

Rank: #73
41%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #23
59%
Expected Total Games: 25.7
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

Why the Model Favors Luciano Darderi

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +4.2 Luciano Darderi
Overall strength +4.0 Luciano Darderi
Age +3.5 Luciano Darderi
Recent form +3.1 James Duckworth
Overall record & opposition quality +2.8 Luciano Darderi

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 59% for Luciano Darderi. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

James Duckworth

  • Current #73 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #82 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #79 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #88 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #108 2025-10-20

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #23 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #21 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #22 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #25 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #26 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

James Duckworth

Form Index: 39.9
ELO Rating: 1604.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1604.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 69.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.4
Clay: 9.6
Grass: 11.1
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 86.2

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 41.0
ELO Rating: 1749.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1789.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.2
Clay: 32.5
Grass: 15.5
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

James Duckworth
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Luciano Darderi
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
James Duckworth
vs
0
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Luciano Darderi is favoured, but not overwhelmingly, at 59% to James Duckworth’s 41%, with 25.7 games expected. The Round of 16 in Almaty looks competitive, with Darderi holding a narrow advantage.

Match Analysis

The main separator is Darderi’s stronger overall level and hard-court record. He is ranked 23rd, compared with Duckworth at 73rd, and has the better profile on this surface. Duckworth’s latest result offers a counterweight: he beat Miomir Kecmanovic in straight sets in Almaty. Darderi has lost his last two matches, though he did beat Casper Ruud in Tokyo. Duckworth has also spent 69 minutes on court in this tournament, while Darderi has spent none.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.7 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (James Duckworth - Luciano Darderi) -1.7 Most likely spread: -2 (Luciano Darderi wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Duckworth is projected to hit 7.7 aces and Darderi 8.2, a close contest between players with similar serve strength. Both are projected for 2.9 double faults, with the hard court offering a consistent bounce for their service games.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.2 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: James Duckworth 7.7 + Luciano Darderi 8.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.8 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: James Duckworth 2.9 + Luciano Darderi 2.9

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

James Duckworth

Expected 7.7 aces

Luciano Darderi

Expected 8.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

James Duckworth

Expected 2.9 double faults

Luciano Darderi

Expected 2.9 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

48.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (James Duckworth's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (37.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Duckworth’s serve is his best chance to upset the forecast: if it gives him enough free points, he can offset Darderi’s stronger overall and hard-court profile.

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