Jan-Lennard Struff vs Daniil Medvedev: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Medvedev comes mainly from his superior recent record at this level and a better surface fit; these two factors alone swing the prediction heavily in his favor. Medvedev brings a top-10 ranking (No. 9) and an Elo of 1882, compared with Struff at No. 74 and an Elo of 1659, and both players enter in similar form (Medvedev 60.99, Struff 59.71). Those underlying class and results differentials underpin the 12.9 percentage points credited to recent record and the 5.7 points for surface fit. Serve and return balance and overall strength also contribute to the gap. Both players show elite serve indices (Struff 96.50, Medvedev 96.23) and comparable return indices (Struff 90.88, Medvedev 89.18), so neither enjoys a decisive serving edge—yet Medvedev’s higher baseline level and match experience on big stages push the serve & return factor (5.1 points) and overall strength (5.1 points) toward him. Head-to-head considerations add another 3.5 points in Medvedev’s favor. Fatigue levels are identical from this event (348 minutes on court apiece), and surface strength indices are close (Struff 25.13, Medvedev 27.87), suggesting conditioning won’t be a differential. Over the last three matches Struff has two gritty five-set wins at Wimbledon (both long affairs) and an earlier loss in Mallorca, while Medvedev has two straight wins at Wimbledon (including a 3-0 over Marin Cilic) and a loss in Halle, showing steadier results at this tournament.