Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Jan-Lennard Struff vs Mackenzie McDonald Prediction

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #143
46%
VS

Mackenzie McDonald

Rank: #95
54%
Expected Total Games: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Mackenzie McDonald

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Ranking Trends

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #143 2025-08-04
  • 3 mo ago #87 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #46 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #43 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #35 2024-08-26

Mackenzie McDonald

  • Current #95 2025-08-04
  • 3 mo ago #98 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #115 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #131 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #140 2024-08-26

Player Metrics

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 77.4
ELO Rating: 1053.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1632.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.0
Clay: 10.2
Grass: 12.1
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 85.1

Mackenzie McDonald

Form Index: 35.6
ELO Rating: 519.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1596.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.1
Clay: 3.2
Grass: 4.5
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 85.7

Recent Matches

Jan-Lennard Struff
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Cazaux (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Taro Daniel (2-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Clement Chidekh (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Mariano Navone (1-2) hard Cincinnati 135 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Cazaux (0-2) clay Kitzbuhel 82 min

Mackenzie McDonald
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (1-2) hard Winston Salem 151 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Holt (2-1) hard Winston Salem 152 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Corentin Moutet (0-2) hard Cincinnati 91 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (0-2) hard Toronto 91 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs David Goffin (2-0) hard Toronto 85 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jan-Lennard Struff
vs
0
Mackenzie McDonald
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The first-round match at the 2025 US Open between Jan-Lennard Struff and Mackenzie McDonald will take place on hard courts in New York. The predicted winner is Mackenzie McDonald, with a 53.78% probability of victory compared to Jan-Lennard Struff's 46.22%. The anticipated total number of games played is 36.

Match Analysis

Jan-Lennard Struff, currently ranked 143, holds a form index of 77.45 and an Elo rating of 1053.54. He has accumulated significant fatigue, with 522 minutes spent on the court in the current tournament. His surface strength index stands at 8.98, indicating reasonable performance on hard courts. Struff's mean serve index of 97.22 is notably higher than McDonald's 95.04, providing him with a slight edge in service effectiveness. However, the difference in their mean return indexes is negligible, with Struff at 85.07 and McDonald at 85.75. On the other hand, Mackenzie McDonald, ranked 95, has a form index of 35.61 and an Elo rating of 519.34. Notably, he has no cumulative fatigue, having played significantly fewer minutes in the current tournament. McDonald's recent performances include a mixed bag of results, with a win against Brandon Holt, but a loss to Luciano Darderi in his last match. Conversely, Struff has shown more consistency with three consecutive wins, all at the US Open, showcasing his ability to perform well under pressure.

Final Prediction

Mackenzie McDonald has the advantage of being less fatigued and has performed reasonably well in recent matches despite a lower form index. The key factor to watch will be Struff's serving capabilities, as his stronger mean serve index could be crucial in determining the outcome of closely contested games.

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