Mallorca Spain Grass Atp 250 Round of 16

Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #77
26%
VS

Nuno Borges

Rank: #54
74%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Nuno Borges

Why the Model Favors Nuno Borges

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +5.5 Nuno Borges
Serve & return game +5.3 Nuno Borges
Surface fit +5.0 Nuno Borges
Age +3.0 Nuno Borges
Recent record by level +2.9 Nuno Borges

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 74% for Nuno Borges. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #77 2026-06-15
  • 3 mo ago #78 2026-03-16
  • 6 mo ago #84 2025-12-22
  • 9 mo ago #102 2025-09-22
  • 12 mo ago #127 2025-06-23

Nuno Borges

  • Current #54 2026-06-15
  • 3 mo ago #50 2026-03-16
  • 6 mo ago #47 2025-12-22
  • 9 mo ago #51 2025-09-22
  • 12 mo ago #37 2025-06-23

Player Metrics

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 41.4
ELO Rating: 1578.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1594.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 115.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.8
Clay: 16.7
Grass: 20.4
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 91.1

Nuno Borges

Form Index: 45.1
ELO Rating: 1655.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1665.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 95.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.8
Clay: 24.7
Grass: 18.1
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 86.1

Recent Matches

Jan-Lennard Struff
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Nuno Borges
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jan-Lennard Struff
vs
0
Nuno Borges
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Mallorca, Spain — round of 16 on grass at an ATP 250-level event sees Jan-Lennard Struff face Nuno Borges. The model favors Nuno Borges (74.37%) over Jan-Lennard Struff (25.63%), with a predicted total of about 23.5 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Borges comes mainly from recent form, the serve & return matchup, and surface fit. Recent form nudges Borges ahead (+5.5 percentage points) despite tight recent results: Borges posts a slightly higher form index (45.06 vs 41.40) and arrives off a straight-sets win over Adrian Mannarino, while Struff has two wins in his last three but a loss to Alexander Bublik. On serve and return the model also leans to Borges (+5.3), supported by Borges’s stronger overall Elo (1655 vs 1579) and higher tour ranking (54 vs 77), even though both players have very similar mean serve indexes (Struff 96.60, Borges 95.87) so neither enjoys a clear serving dominance on paper. Surface fit is the third driver (+5.0) despite both players showing modest grass strength (Struff 20.38, Borges 18.13). Fatigue favors Borges — Struff has logged 115 minutes in-tournament compared with Borges’s 95 — and the age factor also nudges the prediction toward Borges. Over the last three matches Struff’s results were wins over Landaluce and Galarneau with a loss to Bublik; Borges beat Mannarino but fell in tight matches to Auger-Aliassime and Cilic.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jan-Lennard Struff - Nuno Borges) -2.6 Most likely spread: -3 (Nuno Borges wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this grass match is elevated: the model’s predicted aces stand at 16.92, while the expected double faults are 5.41. Grass typically produces more aces because of the low, skidding bounce, so the predicted aces reflect the surface. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, so the predicted aces are driven more by the surface than by a single dominant server. This expected double faults figure is modest, indicating both players should hold serve fairly cleanly.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

42.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jan-Lennard Struff's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (51.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Borges’ advantage is driven foremost by recent form in combination with marginal service/return edges and the surface-fit signal. Watch the serve & return battle — particularly whether Struff’s strong return index can force breaks or whether Borges’ match rhythm holds up under pressure.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel