Jan Choinski vs Lorenzo Sonego Prediction

Jan Choinski, currently ranked 131, has a form index of 36.23 and an Elo rating of 260.88. He has shown signs of fatigue, having accumulated 131 minutes on court during this tournament. His surface strength index of 3.20 indicates he has room for improvement on hard courts. Choinski's mean serve index of 96.69 is solid, but his mean return index of 88.04 suggests he may struggle to capitalize on return opportunities against tougher opponents. In contrast, Lorenzo Sonego is ranked 45 and boasts a higher form index of 41.94 along with an Elo rating of 1137.75. He enters this match with no cumulative fatigue, having played fewer minutes in the tournament. Sonego's surface strength index is significantly better at 9.70, reflecting his proficiency on hard courts. While his mean serve index of 96.11 is comparable to Choinski's, his mean return index of 84.92 falls short by a margin greater than 5 points, indicating that Choinski might have an edge in return games. Both players have had mixed results in their recent matches. Choinski won his last two matches at Metz but faced a strong opponent in the US Open, losing in a tough three-setter. Sonego, meanwhile, recently suffered a defeat to Daniil Medvedev but had victories against Lorenzo Musetti and Sebastian Korda in earlier rounds, showcasing his competitive edge.