Metz France Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Jan Choinski vs Lorenzo Sonego Prediction

Jan Choinski

Rank: #131
29%
VS

Lorenzo Sonego

Rank: #45
71%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Sonego

Player Metrics

Jan Choinski

Form Index: 36.2
ELO Rating: 260.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1534.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 131.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.2
Clay: 2.5
Grass: 2.5
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 88.0

Lorenzo Sonego

Form Index: 41.9
ELO Rating: 1137.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1596.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.7
Clay: 8.8
Grass: 9.8
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 84.9

Recent Matches

Jan Choinski

  • Last Match: vs Kyrian Jacquet (2-1) hard Metz 102 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Harold Mayot (1-0) hard Metz 29 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Andrea Collarini (0-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Mark Lajal (1-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Giulio Zeppieri (0-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Lorenzo Sonego

  • Last Match: vs Daniil Medvedev (1-2) hard Paris 159 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-1) hard Paris 116 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Sebastian Korda (2-0) hard Paris 88 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0-2) hard Basel 122 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Ugo Humbert (1-2) hard Stockholm 163 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jan Choinski
vs
0
Lorenzo Sonego
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Jan Choinski and Lorenzo Sonego in the Round of 32 at the Metz tournament promises to be an intriguing contest on hard courts. Sonego is favored to win with a probability of 70.50%, while Choinski's chances stand at 29.50%. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is estimated at 22.

Match Analysis

Jan Choinski, currently ranked 131, has a form index of 36.23 and an Elo rating of 260.88. He has shown signs of fatigue, having accumulated 131 minutes on court during this tournament. His surface strength index of 3.20 indicates he has room for improvement on hard courts. Choinski's mean serve index of 96.69 is solid, but his mean return index of 88.04 suggests he may struggle to capitalize on return opportunities against tougher opponents. In contrast, Lorenzo Sonego is ranked 45 and boasts a higher form index of 41.94 along with an Elo rating of 1137.75. He enters this match with no cumulative fatigue, having played fewer minutes in the tournament. Sonego's surface strength index is significantly better at 9.70, reflecting his proficiency on hard courts. While his mean serve index of 96.11 is comparable to Choinski's, his mean return index of 84.92 falls short by a margin greater than 5 points, indicating that Choinski might have an edge in return games. Both players have had mixed results in their recent matches. Choinski won his last two matches at Metz but faced a strong opponent in the US Open, losing in a tough three-setter. Sonego, meanwhile, recently suffered a defeat to Daniil Medvedev but had victories against Lorenzo Musetti and Sebastian Korda in earlier rounds, showcasing his competitive edge.

Final Prediction

Lorenzo Sonego's superior ranking, form, and experience on hard courts give him a distinct advantage over Jan Choinski. One key factor to watch will be Sonego's ability to manage his return game, particularly against Choinski's strong serve, which could dictate the match's tempo and outcome.