Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Sinner arrives as the clear clay specialist on paper: World No. 1, an Elo of 2542.29 and a surface strength index of 94.33, coupled with a form index of 68.03. Rublev is ranked 14th, with an Elo of 1796.31 and a much lower surface strength index of 32.45; his form index sits at 55.25. Fatigue is a factor for both — Sinner has 254 minutes on court in this event, Rublev 281 — giving Rublev a slight endurance disadvantage coming off a 133-minute match in the previous round. Both players show nearly identical serve metrics (Sinner 95.45, Rublev 95.40), and their return indices are comparable (Sinner 91.21 vs Rublev 87.34), so neither holds a clear edge in raw serving numbers. Over the last three matches in Rome each has been unbeaten through their rounds. Sinner has been efficient, closing three straight sets with match durations of 100, 65 and 89 minutes. Rublev also won three matches but logged a marathon 133-minute contest most recently and two shorter wins (74, 74 minutes), which contributes to his higher cumulative fatigue. That combination of superior clay credentials and consistent straight-set wins explains why Sinner is the heavy favorite.