Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Finals

Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #1
47%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #2
53%
Predicted Games Played: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Player Metrics

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 96.7
ELO Rating: 11447.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2163.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 1044.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 97.8
Grass: 98.9
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 88.9

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 97.8
ELO Rating: 6661.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2364.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 1044.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.6
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.9
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Jannik Sinner

  • Last Match: vs Novak Djokovic (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Grigor Dimitrov (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Pedro Martinez (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Aleksandar Vukic (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Cameron Norrie (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Andrey Rublev (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Jan-Lennard Struff (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Oliver Tarvet (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jannik Sinner
vs
5
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 2
Clay
0 - 3
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the highly anticipated Wimbledon Finals of 2025, Jannik Sinner takes on Carlos Alcaraz on the iconic grass courts of Great Britain. With Sinner currently ranked 1 and Alcaraz at 2, the match promises to be an intense showdown. The predicted winner is Carlos Alcaraz, with a win probability of 53.35% compared to Sinner's 46.65%. The total number of games played is anticipated to be around 36.

Match Analysis

Jannik Sinner boasts a strong form index of 96.67 and an impressive Elo rating of 11,447.28, indicating exceptional performance levels. His cumulative fatigue stands at 1,044 minutes, yet he showcases a remarkable surface strength index of 98.92, highlighting his proficiency on grass. Sinner's mean serve index is 97.63, which exceeds Alcaraz’s 94.53 by a notable margin of over 5 points, suggesting he may have the upper hand in serving power. However, his mean return index of 88.89 is slightly better than Alcaraz’s 87.38, emphasizing a balanced return game. Carlos Alcaraz, while ranked second, is in formidable form, with a form index of 97.79 and an Elo rating reflecting his rising status in the game. Despite having the same cumulative fatigue of 1,044 minutes, Alcaraz's lower surface strength index of 58.91 indicates he might not be as comfortable on grass as Sinner. Over their last three matches, both players have displayed dominance; Sinner has won all matches convincingly, while Alcaraz has faced slightly more resistance but remains unbeaten, showcasing resilience and adaptability.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's slight edge in overall performance metrics, combined with his ability to adapt under pressure, gives him the predicted advantage in this finals match. However, the key factor to watch will be Sinner’s serve; if he can leverage his superior serve index effectively, it could turn the tide in his favor despite the odds.