Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Hugo Gaston vs Jannik Sinner: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Hugo Gaston

Rank: #94
12%
VS

Jannik Sinner

Rank: #2
88%
Expected Total Games: 35.7
Predicted Winner: Jannik Sinner

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Ranking Trends

Hugo Gaston

  • Current #94 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #113 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #99 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #80 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #81 2025-01-13

Jannik Sinner

  • Current #2 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #2 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #1 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #1 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #1 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Hugo Gaston

Form Index: 39.0
ELO Rating: 661.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1569.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.1
Clay: 4.1
Grass: 4.7
Serve Rating: 58.5
Return Rating: 77.7

Jannik Sinner

Form Index: 79.2
ELO Rating: 11500.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2683.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 97.0

Recent Matches

Hugo Gaston
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Cameron Norrie (0-2) hard Auckland 80 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (2-0) hard Auckland 84 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Isaac Becroft (2-0) hard Auckland 73 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Matteo Arnaldi (1-2) hard Brisbane 152 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Daniel Altmaier (1-1) hard Metz 74 min

Jannik Sinner
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Hugo Gaston
vs
0
Jannik Sinner
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

As the Australian Open heats up, the Round of 128 features an intriguing matchup between Hugo Gaston and Jannik Sinner on the hard courts of Australia. With Sinner ranked 2nd and boasting an impressive 88.49% chance of victory, Gaston, ranked 94th, faces a challenging battle with only an 11.51% probability of winning. The expected total number of games in this match stands at approximately 35.69.

Match Analysis

Jannik Sinner enters the match with a significantly higher ranking (2) compared to Hugo Gaston (94), reflecting his superior performance on the tour. Sinner's form index of 79.23, contrasted with Gaston's 38.99, illustrates the stark difference in their current play. Additionally, Sinner's Elo rating of 11500 substantially overshadows Gaston's 661.68, indicating his consistency and strength in high-stakes matches. Both players show no signs of fatigue, suggesting they are well-prepared physically. Notably, Sinner's surface strength index of 100.0 is a perfect score, showcasing his dominance on hard courts, while Gaston’s index of 4.08 highlights his struggles on this surface. In recent performances, Sinner has been formidable, winning all his last three matches convincingly, including a recent triumph over Felix Auger-Aliassime. In contrast, Gaston has had a mixed run, losing to Cameron Norrie in his last outing after a couple of victories against lesser-ranked opponents. This disparity in form and recent success adds to Sinner's advantage heading into their encounter.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 35.7 Most likely outcome: 35 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Hugo Gaston - Jannik Sinner) -0.4 Most likely spread: -1 (Jannik Sinner wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to see a total of approximately 13.28 aces and 4.38 double faults. Given that the hard court surface favors both powerful servers and strong returners, the predicted aces count aligns with Sinner’s high mean serve index of 97.34, which significantly surpasses Gaston's 58.46. This advantage suggests that Sinner may dominate the ace count, while the expected double faults indicate a potential for minor service disruptions, likely leaning towards Gaston.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.3 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Jannik Sinner's superior ranking, form, and surface strength provide him with a clear edge over Hugo Gaston. The key factor to watch will be Sinner's serve, which could dictate the pace and flow of the match, possibly leading to a swift victory given his aces prediction and Gaston’s struggles on hard courts.

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