Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Jenson Brooksby vs Alexei Popyrin: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jenson Brooksby

Rank: #49
62%
VS

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #47
38%
Expected Total Games: 24.2
Predicted Winner: Jenson Brooksby

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Ranking Trends

Jenson Brooksby

  • Current #49 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #53 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #92 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #161 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #937 2025-03-03

Alexei Popyrin

  • Current #47 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #54 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #36 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #25 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #27 2025-03-03

Player Metrics

Jenson Brooksby

Form Index: 38.4
ELO Rating: 1136.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1590.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.0
Clay: 9.0
Grass: 9.9
Serve Rating: 70.9
Return Rating: 70.1

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 33.8
ELO Rating: 936.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1666.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.7
Clay: 10.8
Grass: 7.6
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 88.0

Recent Matches

Jenson Brooksby
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Alexei Popyrin
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-2) hard Dubai 64 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Kamil Majchrzak (2-1) hard Dubai 112 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Doha 84 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Mubarak Shannan Zayid (1-0) hard Doha 58 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Rotterdam 92 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jenson Brooksby
vs
0
Alexei Popyrin
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells (California), in the Round of 128 on hard court at a masters_1000 event, Jenson Brooksby is narrowly favored to progress. The model gives Brooksby a 62.34% chance to win against Alexei Popyrin (37.66%), with a predicted total of about 24.17 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Brooksby comes into the match ranked 49 with an Elo of 1,135.99 and a form index of 38.35; his surface strength index is 8.02 and he has no tournament fatigue. Popyrin is ranked 47 with a lower Elo (936.36) and a form index of 33.75, surface strength 8.71 and likewise no reported fatigue. The matchup shows a clear serving gap: Popyrin’s mean serve index (98.07) is substantially higher than Brooksby’s (70.92), a difference of more than 5 points. There’s also a notable difference in mean return index—Popyrin (88.03) versus Brooksby (70.06)—which the same threshold flags and is worth watching as it flips the usual server/return dynamic. Recent form tells a mixed story. Brooksby reached the latter stages in Dubai, beating Zizou Bergs and Karen Khachanov before falling to Daniil Medvedev; his two earlier wins were straight sets and he has shown the ability to close matches over longer durations. Popyrin’s recent results include a hard-fought win over Kamil Majchrzak but losses to Jakub Mensik and Jannik Sinner; his performances show heavy-hitting potential but some inconsistency against top opposition.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jenson Brooksby - Alexei Popyrin) +0.4 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match sits at an expected total of 16.46, while the predicted double faults are about 5.44. On hard courts—medium-paced with a reliable bounce—these predicted aces reflect a balance between a big server and a competent returner. Given Popyrin’s significantly higher serve rating, the aces prediction is likely to be driven by his service games; the expected double faults number remains modest for this surface and matchup.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.5 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Brooksby’s edge comes largely from a stronger Elo and slightly better form profile, translating into a forecasted consistency advantage over the course of a short match. The key factor to watch is Popyrin’s serve: if he converts his serve power into free points, he can swing momentum quickly, but Brooksby’s steadiness should keep rallies competitive.

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