Dubai U.A.E. Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Jenson Brooksby vs Karen Khachanov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jenson Brooksby

Rank: #49
35%
VS

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #16
65%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Karen Khachanov

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Player Metrics

Jenson Brooksby

Form Index: 28.3
ELO Rating: 1027.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1514.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 94.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.7
Clay: 9.0
Grass: 9.9
Serve Rating: 70.7
Return Rating: 71.6

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 60.9
ELO Rating: 2001.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1738.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 132.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.3
Clay: 18.9
Grass: 20.3
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 90.0

Recent Matches

Jenson Brooksby

  • Last Match: vs Zizou Bergs (2-0) hard Dubai 94 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jiri Lehecka (0-2) hard Doha 82 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Tommy Paul (1-2) hard Dallas 142 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alexander Bublik (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) hard Auckland 87 min

Karen Khachanov

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jenson Brooksby
vs
1
Karen Khachanov
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 16 match in Dubai (U.A.E.), a 500-level hard-court event, pits Jenson Brooksby against Karen Khachanov. The model favors Khachanov to win (64.84%) over Brooksby (35.16%), with a predicted total of about 23.5 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Khachanov arrives as the higher-ranked player (16 vs 49) with a substantially higher Elo rating (2001.19 vs 1027.67) and a stronger form index (60.91 vs 28.30). His mean serve index (97.50) is markedly above Brooksby’s (70.71), a difference well over 5 points, and his mean return index (89.98) also exceeds Brooksby’s (71.57) by a wide margin. Surface strength indices are low for both on hard (Khachanov 12.32, Brooksby 7.74), but Khachanov’s superior serving and returning metrics stand out. Fatigue measured as minutes on court in this tournament is higher for Khachanov (132 min) than Brooksby (94 min), which is a factual input for match conditioning. Looking at recent form, Brooksby has one win in his last three matches here and nearby hard-court events — a straight-sets win over Zizou Bergs (94 minutes) after losses to Jiri Lehecka and Tommy Paul. Khachanov has two wins out of his last three, including a 2-1 victory over Alexander Shevchenko (132 minutes) and a earlier win over Marton Fucsovics; his lone recent loss was a competitive three-set match versus Carlos Alcaraz. Both players have been contesting multi-set, extended hard-court matches recently, with Khachanov showing more consistent outcomes in that span.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Jenson Brooksby versus Karen Khachanov. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Jenson Brooksby versus Karen Khachanov. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jenson Brooksby - Karen Khachanov) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Karen Khachanov wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Jenson Brooksby versus Karen Khachanov. Positive values indicate Jenson Brooksby winning more games, negative values indicate Karen Khachanov winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Jenson Brooksby versus Karen Khachanov. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is about 10.57 total, reflecting the medium-paced hard surface and Khachanov’s big-serve profile; the predicted aces are likely to be concentrated on Khachanov’s service games given his notably higher serve rating. The double faults prediction sits at approximately 4.47 expected double faults for the match, a modest number on hard courts. Given Khachanov’s serve supremacy, expect him to drive the ace count while also carrying most of the risk for double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Jenson Brooksby versus Karen Khachanov. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Jenson Brooksby versus Karen Khachanov. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Jenson Brooksby versus Karen Khachanov. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Jenson Brooksby versus Karen Khachanov. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Khachanov’s advantage is grounded in superior Elo, form, and large margins in both serve and return indices, all of which favor shorter points and more free points on serve. The key factor to watch will be Khachanov’s serve effectiveness versus Brooksby’s ability to convert return opportunities.

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