Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Jenson Brooksby vs Sebastian Baez: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jenson Brooksby

Rank: #63
59%
VS

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #65
41%
Expected Total Games: 27.8
Predicted Winner: Jenson Brooksby

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Player Metrics

Jenson Brooksby

Form Index: 26.4
ELO Rating: 1525.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1522.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.8
Clay: 17.0
Grass: 18.1
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 93.9

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 32.5
ELO Rating: 1638.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1748.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.7
Clay: 13.5
Grass: 12.4
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 89.8

Recent Matches

Jenson Brooksby

Sebastian Baez

  • Last Match: vs Vilius Gaubas (0-2) clay Madrid 89 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (1-2) clay Barcelona 99 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 69 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Stan Wawrinka (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 107 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Titouan Droguet (0-2) clay Bucharest 85 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jenson Brooksby
vs
1
Sebastian Baez
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rome Masters 1000, round of 128 on clay: Jenson Brooksby is narrowly favoured to advance, with a predicted win probability of 59.15% over Sebastian Baez’s 40.85%. The model projects a relatively compact match — about 27.82 total games — suggesting a contest decided in straight sets with multiple breaks rather than extended sets.

Match Analysis

Brooksby (rank 63) arrives with an Elo of 1525.74, a form index of 26.43 and a surface strength index of 17.05. He shows very strong proprietary serve and return markers (mean serve 95.64, mean return 93.93) and carries no fatigue from prior matches. Baez (rank 65) has the higher Elo at 1638.15 and a slightly stronger recent form index (32.46), but a lower surface strength index of 13.49; his serve and return indices are also high (serve 94.57, return 89.84) and he, too, has no accumulated fatigue. Neither player posts a difference greater than 5 points on serve or return indices, so their baseline shot-making metrics are comparable on paper. Recent results for both men show struggles: Brooksby has lost his last three matches (Madrid, Houston, Miami), all straight-set defeats on clay and hard, with match durations of 98, 79 and 88 minutes respectively. Baez also comes off three defeats (Madrid, Barcelona, Monte Carlo) — including a three-seter in Barcelona — with match times of 89, 99 and 69 minutes. Those readings point to players trying to rediscover form rather than arriving in peak confidence.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 27.8 Most likely outcome: 28 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Jenson Brooksby versus Sebastian Baez. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Jenson Brooksby versus Sebastian Baez. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jenson Brooksby - Sebastian Baez) +4.6 Most likely spread: +5 (Jenson Brooksby wins 5 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Jenson Brooksby versus Sebastian Baez. Positive values indicate Jenson Brooksby winning more games, negative values indicate Sebastian Baez winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Jenson Brooksby versus Sebastian Baez. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay encounter is modest: predicted aces for the match sit at 8.5, consistent with a slower surface. The expected double faults total is 4.16, so the double faults prediction suggests a small but meaningful source of free points. Clay’s higher bounce and slower pace tends to reduce ace counts while longer rallies can inflate fatigue-related errors, which aligns with the expected aces and expected double faults here.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.5 Most likely: 8 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.2 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Jenson Brooksby versus Sebastian Baez. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Jenson Brooksby versus Sebastian Baez. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Jenson Brooksby versus Sebastian Baez. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Jenson Brooksby versus Sebastian Baez. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

37.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jenson Brooksby's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (39.4%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Jenson Brooksby's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Brooksby’s edge stems from stronger proprietary return metrics and slightly better combined serve-return balance, which the model favours despite Baez’s higher Elo. Watch the early service games and break-point conversion: whichever player secures early momentum on return is likely to determine this short, break-heavy affair.

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