Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Jesper de Jong vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Prediction

Jesper de Jong

Rank: #93
34%
VS

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #26
66%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

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Ranking Trends

Jesper de Jong

  • Current #93 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #109 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #109 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #104 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #162 2024-05-06

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current #26 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #59 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #63 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #42 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #33 2024-05-06

Player Metrics

Jesper de Jong

Form Index: 42.2
ELO Rating: 677.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1559.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 293.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.9
Clay: 6.2
Grass: 4.3
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 87.3

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 48.8
ELO Rating: 1499.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1693.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.0
Clay: 11.2
Grass: 7.2
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 87.2

Recent Matches

Jesper de Jong
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jesper de Jong
vs
0
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Jesper de Jong and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at the Rome Masters 1000 will be played on clay, a surface that typically favors players with strong baseline games. The predicted winner is Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who has a 65.92% probability of victory compared to Jesper de Jong's 34.08%. The anticipated total number of games in this match is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Jesper de Jong, currently ranked 93, has a form index of 42.22 and an Elo rating of 677.44. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament stands at 293 minutes, which may impact his performance. He has a surface strength index of 6.19, indicating he has been less effective on clay compared to his opponent. Notably, De Jong's mean serve index of 97.81 is significantly higher than Davidovich Fokina's 95.02, suggesting he may hold serve well. However, his return game, with an index of 87.29, is slightly weaker than that of Davidovich Fokina, who has a return index of 87.24. In contrast, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, ranked 26, boasts a form index of 48.81 and an impressive Elo rating of 1499.17. His fatigue level is at zero, indicating he is fresh and ready for the match. With a surface strength index of 11.23, Davidovich Fokina has shown greater effectiveness on clay. His recent performances include a mix of results, with a notable loss to Alexander Zverev in three sets and a victory over Nuno Borges, showcasing his competitive nature despite facing top opponents.

Final Prediction

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's combination of a higher ranking, lower fatigue, and superior surface strength makes him the favored player in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be how effectively De Jong can capitalize on his serve, as it may play a critical role in determining the match's outcome.

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