Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Ethan Quinn vs Jiri Lehecka: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ethan Quinn

Rank: #56
41%
VS

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #22
59%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Jiri Lehecka

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Metrics

Ethan Quinn

Form Index: 45.0
ELO Rating: 917.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1547.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 177.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.8
Clay: 7.4
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 62.1
Return Rating: 39.1

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 48.3
ELO Rating: 1716.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1687.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 95.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.7
Clay: 16.6
Grass: 18.2
Serve Rating: 98.3
Return Rating: 88.6

Recent Matches

Ethan Quinn

  • Last Match: vs Casper Ruud (2-0) hard Miami 111 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Hubert Hurkacz (2-0) hard Miami 66 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Reilly Opelka (0-2) hard Indian Wells 101 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Rafael Jodar (0-2) hard Delray Beach 78 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Marin Cilic (0-2) hard Dallas 97 min

Jiri Lehecka

  • Last Match: vs Moise Kouame (2-0) hard Miami 95 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) hard Indian Wells 71 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Dubai 112 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Pablo Carreno Busta (2-0) hard Dubai 111 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Luca Nardi (2-1) hard Dubai 122 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ethan Quinn
vs
0
Jiri Lehecka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Miami, FL — Round of 32 on the hard courts of a masters_1000 event pits rising American Ethan Quinn against Czech Jiri Lehecka. The model favors Lehecka to advance (58.82% vs 41.18% for Quinn) with a projected 23.49 total games in the match, suggesting a two-set outcome is likeliest.

Match Analysis

Quinn arrives ranked 56 with a form index of 45.00 and an Elo of 917.8; he has accumulated 177 minutes on court in this event and posts a modest surface strength index of 7.75. Lehecka is the higher-ranked player at 22, with a slightly better form index (48.28) and a substantially superior Elo (1716.15); his tournament fatigue (95 minutes) is much lower and his surface strength index is 12.65. Serve and return differentials are stark: Lehecka’s mean serve index (98.25) exceeds Quinn’s (62.13) by over 36 points, and his mean return index (88.61) tops Quinn’s (39.10) by roughly 49 points — both sizable gaps that will shape patterns of hold and break. Recent form paints a mixed picture. Quinn has been impressive in Miami, back-to-back wins over Hubert Hurkacz (66 minutes) and Casper Ruud (111 minutes) display match-winning momentum after a straight-sets loss to Reilly Opelka at Indian Wells. Lehecka also progressed in Miami with a 2-0 win over Moise Kouame (95 minutes), though his prior two results were straight-sets losses to Sebastian Baez and Felix Auger-Aliassime at earlier events. Overall, Quinn’s recent wins give him confidence, but Lehecka’s underlying numbers and fresher legs point to control in baseline exchanges and service games.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Ethan Quinn versus Jiri Lehecka. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Ethan Quinn versus Jiri Lehecka. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ethan Quinn - Jiri Lehecka) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Jiri Lehecka wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Ethan Quinn versus Jiri Lehecka. Positive values indicate Ethan Quinn winning more games, negative values indicate Jiri Lehecka winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Ethan Quinn versus Jiri Lehecka. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard-court match sits at 6.72 total; the predicted aces skew toward the player with the bigger serve. Expected double faults are 4.11 for the match. On medium-paced hard courts, aces are moderate — not as many as on grass but more than on clay — and Lehecka’s significantly higher serve rating should inflate the predicted aces count while potentially reducing his own double-fault risk.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Ethan Quinn versus Jiri Lehecka. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Ethan Quinn versus Jiri Lehecka. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Ethan Quinn versus Jiri Lehecka. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Ethan Quinn versus Jiri Lehecka. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Lehecka’s edge comes from superior Elo, markedly stronger serve and return indices, and lower tournament fatigue. Key factor to watch: whether Quinn’s recent momentum and return resilience can disrupt Lehecka’s service dominance early in sets.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel