Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Joao Fonseca vs Eliot Spizzirri: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Joao Fonseca

Rank: #29
56%
VS

Eliot Spizzirri

Rank: #89
44%
Expected Total Games: 39.0
Predicted Winner: Joao Fonseca

Player Metrics

Joao Fonseca

Form Index: 52.4
ELO Rating: 1510.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1553.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.6
Clay: 11.7
Grass: 11.0
Serve Rating: 53.4
Return Rating: 57.5

Eliot Spizzirri

Form Index: 61.6
ELO Rating: 754.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1535.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.7
Clay: 5.3
Grass: 5.4
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 93.8

Recent Matches

Joao Fonseca

  • Last Match: vs Karen Khachanov (1-2) hard Paris 110 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Denis Shapovalov (2-1) hard Paris 124 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-0) hard Basel 85 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Jaume Munar (2-0) hard Basel 114 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Denis Shapovalov (2-1) hard Basel 96 min

Eliot Spizzirri

  • Last Match: vs Fabian Marozsan (1-2) hard Auckland 104 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Nuno Borges (2-0) hard Auckland 98 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Adrian Mannarino (2-0) hard Auckland 80 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (2-0) hard Auckland 87 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Cristian Garin (2-0) hard Auckland 82 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Joao Fonseca
vs
0
Eliot Spizzirri
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the Australian Open, Joao Fonseca is set to face Eliot Spizzirri on hard courts. Fonseca, ranked 29th, comes in with a slight edge, holding a 55.76% probability of winning against Spizzirri's 44.24%. The match is expected to feature around 39 total games, showcasing a competitive clash between the two players.

Match Analysis

Joao Fonseca enters the match with a solid form index of 52.42 and an Elo rating of 1510, reflecting his competitive standing. His surface strength index of 10.63 indicates a reliable performance on hard courts, while he has minimal fatigue from previous matches. In contrast, Eliot Spizzirri ranks 89th, with a higher form index of 61.56 and a considerably lower Elo rating of 754.53. While Spizzirri's surface strength index of 6.65 suggests some capability on hard courts, the gap in ranking and Elo rating provides Fonseca a notable advantage. Additionally, there is a significant difference in their mean serve indexes, with Fonseca at 53.44 and Spizzirri boasting a strong 96.36. This 42.92-point disparity indicates that Spizzirri possesses a more potent serve, which may play a crucial role in the match. Both players have shown resilience in recent performances, with Fonseca winning two of his last three matches, albeit with a recent loss against Khachanov. Spizzirri's last three matches show a mix of results, with one win and two losses, indicating potential vulnerabilities.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.0 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is anticipated to feature approximately 25.84 aces, reflecting the capabilities of both players, particularly Spizzirri's strong serve rating. The expected double faults are around 6, which is relatively typical for hard courts where players often take risks on their serves. Given Spizzirri's higher serve index, he might lead in the aces prediction, while both players will need to manage their double faults effectively to maintain momentum.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 25.8 Most likely: 25 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.0 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Joao Fonseca's slight edge in match prediction stems from his overall ranking and recent performances, despite Spizzirri's stronger serve. A key factor to observe will be the effectiveness of Fonseca's return game, as he may need to neutralize Spizzirri's serve to secure a victory.

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