Winston Salem NC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Dhakshineswar Suresh: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Rank: #51
76%
VS

Dhakshineswar Suresh

Rank: #400
24%
Expected Total Games: 22.9
Predicted Winner: Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Why the Model Favors Juan Manuel Cerundolo

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +13.2 Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Overall strength +11.8 Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Recent form +6.2 Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Surface fit +5.1 Dhakshineswar Suresh
Fatigue & recent workload +1.2 Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 76% for Juan Manuel Cerundolo. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Form Index: 47.9
ELO Rating: 1720.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1698.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.4
Clay: 30.4
Grass: 8.6
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 89.9

Dhakshineswar Suresh

Form Index: 44.2
ELO Rating: 1519.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1658.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 314.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.5
Clay: 9.8
Grass: 4.5
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 83.8

Recent Matches

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Dhakshineswar Suresh

  • Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (2-0) hard Winston Salem 67 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Abdullah Shelbayh (1-2) hard Winston Salem 110 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Roger Pascual Ferra (2-1) hard Winston Salem 137 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Mariano Navone (0-2) hard Winston Salem 79 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alejandro Tabilo (2-1) hard Winston Salem 124 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
vs
0
Dhakshineswar Suresh
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Winston Salem, North Carolina. Round of 32 on hard courts at an ATP 250 event. The model favors Juan Manuel Cerundolo to win, with a 76.25% probability versus 23.75% for Dhakshineswar Suresh. The match is expected to be relatively short, with an anticipated 22.95 total games.

Match Analysis

The model's edge for Cerundolo comes mainly from his recent record by level and his overall strength. Cerundolo is ranked 51 with an Elo of 1720.8 and a form index of 47.94. He arrived having won two qualifying/main draw matches in Cincinnati before a straight sets loss to Felix Auger-Aliassime. Those results against higher level opposition are the basis for the 13.2 percentage point boost from recent record by level, and the 11.8 point lift from overall strength. Cerundolo also benefits modestly from recent form and a zero fatigue reading in this event, which adds another small advantage. Surface fit nudges the projection toward Suresh by 5.1 points, but the underlying numbers still favor Cerundolo. Suresh is ranked 400, Elo 1519.9, and carries substantial on-court minutes this week (314 minutes of fatigue). His form index is 44.24. Both players present strong serve profiles, with mean serve indexes close to each other, but Cerundolo holds a notable edge in return ability (mean return index 89.87 versus Suresh 83.85). Over the last three matches Cerundolo logged two solid wins and one predictable loss to a top seed. Suresh has shown resilience in Winston Salem with wins over Roger Pascual Ferra and Marcos Giron, and one three set exit to Abdullah Shelbayh.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.9 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Dhakshineswar Suresh. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Dhakshineswar Suresh. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Dhakshineswar Suresh) +2.8 Most likely spread: +3 (Juan Manuel Cerundolo wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Dhakshineswar Suresh. Positive values indicate Juan Manuel Cerundolo winning more games, negative values indicate Dhakshineswar Suresh winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Dhakshineswar Suresh. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction calls for 13.2 total aces in the match, with predicted aces split at 7.15 for Cerundolo and 6.34 for Suresh. The expected double faults total is 5.97, split into 2.85 for Cerundolo and 3.13 for Suresh. On a medium-paced hard court, these predicted aces are consistent with a surface that rewards both service power and returns. Per player ace projections show Cerundolo 7.15 and Suresh 6.34, reflecting a close serving matchup.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.2 Most likely: 11 aces Per player: Juan Manuel Cerundolo 7.2 + Dhakshineswar Suresh 6.3
Expected Total Double Faults 6.0 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Juan Manuel Cerundolo 2.9 + Dhakshineswar Suresh 3.1

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Dhakshineswar Suresh. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Dhakshineswar Suresh. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

🎯 Aces by Player

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Expected 7.2 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Juan Manuel Cerundolo serves in this match.
Dhakshineswar Suresh

Expected 6.3 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Dhakshineswar Suresh serves in this match.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Dhakshineswar Suresh. The chart shows the predicted probability for each double-fault count.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Juan Manuel Cerundolo versus Dhakshineswar Suresh. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Double Faults by Player

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Expected 2.9 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Juan Manuel Cerundolo serves in this match.
Dhakshineswar Suresh

Expected 3.1 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Dhakshineswar Suresh serves in this match.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

37.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Juan Manuel Cerundolo's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (48.4%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Juan Manuel Cerundolo's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Cerundolo’s margin comes chiefly from recent record by level and superior overall strength, combined with a fresher workload. Watch the return game early, as Cerundolo’s stronger return index is likely to determine how often Suresh faces break pressure.

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