Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 32

Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Rank: #54
41%
VS

Martin Landaluce

Rank: #67
59%
Expected Total Games: 37.8
Predicted Winner: Martin Landaluce

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Ranking Trends

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

  • Current #54 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #70 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #85 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #88 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #109 2025-05-26

Martin Landaluce

  • Current #67 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #156 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #135 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #138 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #145 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Form Index: 62.2
ELO Rating: 1730.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1640.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.6
Clay: 33.3
Grass: 8.7
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 95.1

Martin Landaluce

Form Index: 80.0
ELO Rating: 1795.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1809.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.8
Clay: 20.8
Grass: 10.6
Serve Rating: 93.5
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Juan Manuel Cerundolo
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jannik Sinner (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jacob Fearnley (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Cristian Garin (0-2) clay Rome 134 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (0-2) clay Madrid 78 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-0) clay Madrid 75 min

Martin Landaluce
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Juan Carlos Prado Angelo (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (1-2) clay Rome 143 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-0) clay Rome 107 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Mattia Bellucci (2-0) clay Rome 107 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
vs
0
Martin Landaluce
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros Round of 32 in Paris on clay sets up an intriguing contrast between Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Martin Landaluce in this grand slam match. The model favors Martin Landaluce to win (58.77% vs Cerundolo 41.23%), with a projected total of about 37.8 games in the encounter.

Match Analysis

Cerundolo arrives ranked 54 with an Elo of 1730.7 and a form index of 62.15. He shows a stronger clay surface strength (33.35) than Landaluce and posts very high serve and return indices (95.52 and 95.05 respectively), signalling an all-court comfort on slower surfaces despite accumulating 348 minutes of court time this tournament. His last two wins at Roland Garros — both long matches — underline resilience, though a straight-sets loss in Rome three matches ago is on record. Landaluce, ranked 67 with a higher Elo (1795.2) and a superior form index (80.03), brings consistent recent results at Roland Garros, having won two tight five-setters in this event. His surface strength index is lower (20.76), and his mean return index (86.68) lags Cerundolo’s by more than five points, which could shape the tactical battle; Landaluce’s serve index (93.52) is comparable to Cerundolo’s so there’s no large serving gap. Both players have identical tournament fatigue totals (348 minutes), reflecting similarly gruelling paths to the last 32.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.8 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Martin Landaluce) -1.1 Most likely spread: -2 (Martin Landaluce wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 10.44 for the match while the expected double faults are roughly 9.79. On clay, predicted aces tend to be suppressed and expected double faults can climb as rallies and physical demand grow; these numbers reflect that dynamic. Neither player posts a significantly higher serve rating to dramatically boost the predicted aces, so the bulk of service points will likely come from placement and consistency rather than free points.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.4 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 9.8 Most likely: 9 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Juan Manuel Cerundolo's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (25.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Landaluce’s sharper recent form and higher Elo give him the edge despite Cerundolo’s stronger clay-specific profile and elite return numbers. The key factor to watch is Cerundolo’s return performance — if he can convert that return edge, he tilts the match; otherwise Landaluce’s momentum should carry him through.

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