Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Juncheng Shang vs Roberto Bautista Agut: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Juncheng Shang

Rank: #406
55%
VS

Roberto Bautista Agut

Rank: #90
45%
Expected Total Games: 36.3
Predicted Winner: Juncheng Shang

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Metrics

Juncheng Shang

Form Index: 46.6
ELO Rating: 276.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1614.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.0
Clay: 0.1
Grass: 0.1
Serve Rating: 86.3
Return Rating: 60.7

Roberto Bautista Agut

Form Index: 25.1
ELO Rating: 663.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1604.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.3
Clay: 18.0
Grass: 19.3
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 94.7

Recent Matches

Juncheng Shang

Roberto Bautista Agut

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Juncheng Shang
vs
0
Roberto Bautista Agut
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the 2026 Australian Open, Juncheng Shang faces off against Roberto Bautista Agut on hard courts in Australia. The match is set to be competitive, with Shang slightly favored to win at a probability of 55.28%, while Bautista Agut's chances sit at 44.72%. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 36.34.

Match Analysis

Juncheng Shang is currently ranked 406, showcasing a form index of 46.64 and an Elo rating of 276.87. His surface strength index is 2.99, which indicates a developing proficiency on hard courts. In contrast, Roberto Bautista Agut, sitting at rank 90, has a stronger form index of 25.09 and a significantly higher Elo rating of 663.50, suggesting more consistent performance at this level. Bautista Agut's surface strength index of 17.32 further highlights his experience and capability on hard courts, especially when combined with his mean serve index of 97.68, which is notably higher than Shang's mean serve index of 86.30, a difference of over 11 points. Additionally, Bautista Agut excels in return games, with a mean return index of 94.69 compared to Shang’s 60.70, indicating a potential advantage in returning serves effectively. Examining their recent performances, Juncheng Shang has shown resilience, winning two out of his last three matches, including a straight-sets victory against Lorenzo Sonego. Meanwhile, Bautista Agut has struggled recently, losing his last two matches without winning a set, although he did secure a win against Christopher O'Connell prior to that. This disparity in momentum could play a crucial role in the upcoming encounter.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.3 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Juncheng Shang versus Roberto Bautista Agut. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Juncheng Shang versus Roberto Bautista Agut. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Juncheng Shang - Roberto Bautista Agut) -1.9 Most likely spread: -2 (Roberto Bautista Agut wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Juncheng Shang versus Roberto Bautista Agut. Positive values indicate Juncheng Shang winning more games, negative values indicate Roberto Bautista Agut winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Juncheng Shang versus Roberto Bautista Agut. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to see approximately 19.95 aces, with an anticipated 5.0 double faults. Given the hard court surface, which balances power serving and strong returning, the predicted aces could be indicative of both players' abilities to exploit their serves. Bautista Agut's superior serve index suggests he may have a slight edge in aces prediction, while both players are likely to manage their double faults effectively given their experience.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.9 Most likely: 19 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.0 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Juncheng Shang versus Roberto Bautista Agut. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Juncheng Shang versus Roberto Bautista Agut. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Juncheng Shang versus Roberto Bautista Agut. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Juncheng Shang versus Roberto Bautista Agut. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Juncheng Shang appears to have the edge due to a recent uptick in form and the psychological advantages of having won two of his last three matches. However, Roberto Bautista Agut's experience and superior serve and return statistics could prove pivotal. A key factor to monitor during the match will be how well Shang can handle Bautista Agut's serve, which may dictate the flow and outcome of the encounter.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel