Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Juncheng Shang vs Roberto Bautista Agut: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Juncheng Shang

Rank: #406
55%
VS

Roberto Bautista Agut

Rank: #90
45%
Expected Total Games: 36.3
Predicted Winner: Juncheng Shang

Ranking Trends

Juncheng Shang

  • Current Rank: #406 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #223 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #87 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #60 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #50 (2025-01-13)

Roberto Bautista Agut

  • Current Rank: #90 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #87 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #53 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #55 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #53 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Juncheng Shang

Form Index: 46.6
ELO Rating: 276.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1614.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.0
Clay: 0.1
Grass: 0.1
Serve Rating: 86.3
Return Rating: 60.7

Roberto Bautista Agut

Form Index: 25.1
ELO Rating: 663.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1604.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.3
Clay: 18.0
Grass: 19.3
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 94.7

Recent Matches

Juncheng Shang
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) hard Hong Kong 85 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-0) hard Hong Kong 82 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (2-0) hard Hong Kong 77 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Nuno Borges (1-2) hard Shanghai 147 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Karen Khachanov (2-0) hard Shanghai 101 min

Roberto Bautista Agut
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (0-2) hard Auckland 96 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Marton Fucsovics (0-2) hard Winston Salem 93 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Christopher O'Connell (1-0) hard Winston Salem 51 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Cincinnati 109 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Cameron Norrie (2-0) hard Cincinnati 111 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Juncheng Shang
vs
0
Roberto Bautista Agut
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the 2026 Australian Open, Juncheng Shang faces off against Roberto Bautista Agut on hard courts in Australia. The match is set to be competitive, with Shang slightly favored to win at a probability of 55.28%, while Bautista Agut's chances sit at 44.72%. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 36.34.

Match Analysis

Juncheng Shang is currently ranked 406, showcasing a form index of 46.64 and an Elo rating of 276.87. His surface strength index is 2.99, which indicates a developing proficiency on hard courts. In contrast, Roberto Bautista Agut, sitting at rank 90, has a stronger form index of 25.09 and a significantly higher Elo rating of 663.50, suggesting more consistent performance at this level. Bautista Agut's surface strength index of 17.32 further highlights his experience and capability on hard courts, especially when combined with his mean serve index of 97.68, which is notably higher than Shang's mean serve index of 86.30, a difference of over 11 points. Additionally, Bautista Agut excels in return games, with a mean return index of 94.69 compared to Shang’s 60.70, indicating a potential advantage in returning serves effectively. Examining their recent performances, Juncheng Shang has shown resilience, winning two out of his last three matches, including a straight-sets victory against Lorenzo Sonego. Meanwhile, Bautista Agut has struggled recently, losing his last two matches without winning a set, although he did secure a win against Christopher O'Connell prior to that. This disparity in momentum could play a crucial role in the upcoming encounter.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.3 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to see approximately 19.95 aces, with an anticipated 5.0 double faults. Given the hard court surface, which balances power serving and strong returning, the predicted aces could be indicative of both players' abilities to exploit their serves. Bautista Agut's superior serve index suggests he may have a slight edge in aces prediction, while both players are likely to manage their double faults effectively given their experience.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.9 Most likely: 19 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.0 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Juncheng Shang appears to have the edge due to a recent uptick in form and the psychological advantages of having won two of his last three matches. However, Roberto Bautista Agut's experience and superior serve and return statistics could prove pivotal. A key factor to monitor during the match will be how well Shang can handle Bautista Agut's serve, which may dictate the flow and outcome of the encounter.

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