Karen Khachanov vs Adam Walton: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Khachanov arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 16) with an Elo of 1615.3, a modest form index (28.18) and no accumulated fatigue in this event. His surface strength index on clay sits at 42.55 and his mean serve index is 73.91, while his mean return index is 64.67. Walton, ranked 117, posts a higher Elo (1656.1) and a markedly better recent form index (62.04), but he carries 80 minutes of match fatigue from this week. His surface strength on clay is similar (39.90) but his mean serve index (98.01) and mean return index (90.53) are both substantially higher than Khachanov’s—differences well above 5 points. Recent form tells a mixed story: Khachanov has lost his last three matches on tour, including two straight defeats on clay in Barcelona and Monte Carlo and a straight-sets loss in Miami. Walton has one confident win this week in Madrid (80 minutes) but had two earlier defeats, including a straight-sets loss in Houston and a tight three-set loss in Miami. That combination of Khachanov’s ranking and freshness against Walton’s higher Elo and strong serving makes this a finely balanced matchup.