Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Fery Prediction

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #27
68%
VS

Arthur Fery

Rank: #37
32%
Expected Total Games: 24.9
Predicted Winner: Karen Khachanov

Why the Model Favors Karen Khachanov

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +6.9 Karen Khachanov
Overall strength +4.7 Karen Khachanov
Recent record by level +3.7 Karen Khachanov
Surface fit +2.9 Karen Khachanov
Age +2.5 Arthur Fery

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 68% for Karen Khachanov. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Karen Khachanov

  • Current #27 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #22 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #14 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #17 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #10 2025-09-29

Arthur Fery

  • Current #37 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #114 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #166 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #185 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #230 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 56.8
ELO Rating: 1848.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1741.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 35.5
Clay: 26.2
Grass: 30.1
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 89.3

Arthur Fery

Form Index: 52.9
ELO Rating: 1781.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1787.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 92.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.4
Clay: 10.8
Grass: 32.3
Serve Rating: 94.3
Return Rating: 88.2

Recent Matches

Karen Khachanov
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Arthur Fery
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Marin Cilic (2-0) hard Shanghai 92 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jaime Faria (1-2) hard Tokio 123 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Ignacio Buse (0-2) hard Winston Salem 71 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs James Duckworth (1-0) hard Winston Salem 59 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Karen Khachanov
vs
0
Arthur Fery
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Khachanov is favoured, with a 68% win probability to Fery’s 32%. The forecast is for 24.9 games in this Round of 64 match in Shanghai.

Match Analysis

The main separation is on serve and return. Khachanov has the stronger profile in both departments, giving him more ways to control service games and put pressure on Fery’s. He also has the higher overall level, reflected in his rank of 27th compared with Fery’s 37th. Khachanov’s two straight-set wins over Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alex Molcan give him a stronger recent record, despite his latest loss to Hubert Hurkacz. Fery arrives after beating Marin Cilic in Shanghai, but has also lost his two previous matches. Khachanov’s stronger hard-court record supports the forecast, while Fery’s age is a point in his favour.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.9 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Karen Khachanov - Arthur Fery) +0.9 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Khachanov is projected for 7.3 aces and 1.9 double faults, compared with 4.5 aces and 1.8 double faults for Fery. Khachanov’s stronger serving profile helps explain the projected ace gap, while the double-fault totals are close.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.5 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Karen Khachanov 7.2 + Arthur Fery 4.5
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.6 Most likely: 2 double faults Per player: Karen Khachanov 1.9 + Arthur Fery 1.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Karen Khachanov

Expected 7.2 aces

Arthur Fery

Expected 4.5 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Karen Khachanov

Expected 1.9 double faults

Arthur Fery

Expected 1.8 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Karen Khachanov's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (45.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fery’s straight-set win over Cilic is the clearest reason to doubt the forecast. If he can sustain that level, he has a chance to overcome Khachanov’s stronger recent record and serve-return profile.

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