Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Karen Khachanov vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #24
17%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #3
83%
Expected Total Games: 22.4
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Why the Model Favors Carlos Alcaraz

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +10.9 Carlos Alcaraz
Surface fit +8.3 Carlos Alcaraz
Recent record by level +6.5 Carlos Alcaraz
Age +1.7 Carlos Alcaraz
Overall record & opposition quality +1.1 Carlos Alcaraz

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 83% for Carlos Alcaraz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Karen Khachanov

  • Current #24 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #26 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #16 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #18 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #14 2025-10-27

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #3 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #3 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #2 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #1 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #1 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 50.6
ELO Rating: 1850.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1768.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.2
Clay: 26.2
Grass: 30.1
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 89.2

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 40.8
ELO Rating: 2229.6
Glicko2 Rating: 2611.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 58.1
Clay: 95.5
Grass: 97.6
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 91.7

Recent Matches

Karen Khachanov
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Carlos Alcaraz
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Karen Khachanov
vs
2
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Carlos Alcaraz is a strong favourite, with an 83% chance of winning against Karen Khachanov’s 17%. The projection is 22.4 games. The advantage reflects Alcaraz’s greater overall strength and better fit on hard courts.

Match Analysis

Alcaraz’s rank of third, compared with Khachanov’s 24th, reflects a substantial gap in overall level. He is also the stronger returner, giving him a better chance to put Khachanov’s serve under pressure. Khachanov’s serve is a strength, but he will need to use it consistently to keep Alcaraz from gaining the upper hand. The hard court further favours Alcaraz, whose record on the surface is stronger. Recent results at comparable tournament levels also give him an advantage. Together, those factors leave Khachanov needing to find a way to disrupt a player who has the edge in both overall quality and surface performance.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.4 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Karen Khachanov - Carlos Alcaraz) -4.9 Most likely spread: -6 (Carlos Alcaraz wins 6 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The hard court’s consistent bounce should make serving conditions relatively balanced, and the two players have similar serve strength. Khachanov is projected for 6.2 aces and 1.9 double faults, while Alcaraz is projected for 7.1 aces and 2.4 double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 11 aces Per player: Karen Khachanov 6.2 + Carlos Alcaraz 7.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.3 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Karen Khachanov 1.9 + Carlos Alcaraz 2.4

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Karen Khachanov

Expected 6.2 aces

Carlos Alcaraz

Expected 7.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Karen Khachanov

Expected 1.9 double faults

Carlos Alcaraz

Expected 2.4 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

31.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Karen Khachanov's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (55.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Khachanov’s most promising route to an upset is his serve: if it holds up under Alcaraz’s return pressure, he can make the favourite work harder for the win. Alcaraz’s stronger return makes that a difficult task.

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