Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Tien comes from a cluster of factors: age, surface fit, overall strength, and record quality. The single largest modeled driver is recent form, which actually nudges the prediction 3.9 percentage points toward Khachanov, reflecting his confident run through the draw. Still, Tien’s advantages on age and surface fit (3.4 and 2.9 percentage points toward Tien) plus marginal gains from overall strength and opposition quality have the final say. Khachanov arrives ranked 49 with a form index of 59.25 and an Elo of 1750.21. He has shown strong serving and returning in this event, with a mean serve index of 96.86 and a mean return index of 89.21. His surface strength index is lower at 28.40, and his cumulative tournament court time is 522 minutes. Tien is ranked 15, carries a higher form index at 68.72 and an Elo of 1884.13. His surface strength index is 45.75, notably higher than Khachanov’s, while his mean serve and return indices are similar at 95.04 and 88.19. Both players have identical reported fatigue at 522 minutes. Over their last three US Open matches, Khachanov has three straight wins including a 3-1 victory over Felix Auger-Aliassime. Tien has also won three in a row, including a tough five-setter in his most recent match and two straight set wins earlier.