Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Karen Khachanov vs Luciano Darderi: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #17
59%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #24
41%
Expected Total Games: 38.9
Predicted Winner: Karen Khachanov

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Metrics

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 72.4
ELO Rating: 2214.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1740.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.9
Clay: 17.3
Grass: 18.9
Serve Rating: 71.7
Return Rating: 63.4

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 73.3
ELO Rating: 1521.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1627.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.1
Clay: 12.7
Grass: 11.3
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 91.6

Recent Matches

Karen Khachanov

  • Last Match: vs Nishesh Basavareddy (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alex Michelsen (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Michael Mmoh (0-2) hard Hong Kong 122 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alex de Minaur (0-2) hard Paris 68 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Joao Fonseca (2-1) hard Paris 110 min

Luciano Darderi

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Karen Khachanov
vs
0
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

As the Australian Open progresses to the Round of 32, Karen Khachanov is set to face Luciano Darderi on hard courts in Australia. With a predicted winner of Khachanov at a 58.60% probability, compared to Darderi's 41.40%, fans can expect a competitive match with a total of approximately 38.86 games played.

Match Analysis

Karen Khachanov, currently ranked 17, possesses a form index of 72.41 and an Elo rating of 2214.92. His fatigue level sits at 348 minutes, indicating a consistent performance throughout the tournament. His surface strength index is 10.95, while his mean serve index is 71.73, showing a solid serving ability. Conversely, Luciano Darderi, ranked 24, has a slightly higher form index of 73.31 but a lower Elo rating of 1521.76. Also at 348 minutes of fatigue, Darderi boasts a higher mean serve index of 97.27 and a return index of 91.59, suggesting he may excel in returning serves. The significant difference of over 5 points in mean serve index (Khachanov's 71.73 vs. Darderi's 97.27) could play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of their service exchanges. In their last three matches, Khachanov has shown resilience, winning two out of three encounters, including a straight-sets victory against Nishesh Basavareddy. Darderi, on the other hand, has also won two of his last three matches, showcasing his competitive edge with a recent win against Sebastian Baez. Both players are demonstrating strong form, but Khachanov's recent experience in Grand Slam settings may give him an advantage.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.9 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Karen Khachanov versus Luciano Darderi. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Karen Khachanov versus Luciano Darderi. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Karen Khachanov - Luciano Darderi) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Luciano Darderi wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Karen Khachanov versus Luciano Darderi. Positive values indicate Karen Khachanov winning more games, negative values indicate Luciano Darderi winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Karen Khachanov versus Luciano Darderi. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to yield around 10.06 aces and 5.63 double faults, indicating a moderately competitive serving environment. Given the hard court surface, which provides a balanced setting for both power servers and effective returners, fans can anticipate a reasonable number of aces. Darderi's higher mean serve index suggests he may contribute more significantly to the aces prediction, while both players may experience some double faults due to the pressure of the Grand Slam stage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Karen Khachanov versus Luciano Darderi. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Karen Khachanov versus Luciano Darderi. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Karen Khachanov versus Luciano Darderi. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Karen Khachanov versus Luciano Darderi. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Khachanov's slight edge in experience and recent performance in the tournament is likely to play a vital role in his favor against Darderi. Observers should pay attention to the effectiveness of Khachanov's serve against Darderi's strong return game, as this could ultimately dictate the match's momentum.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel