Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 32

Karen Khachanov vs Tommy Paul Prediction

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #24
39%
VS

Tommy Paul

Rank: #12
61%
Expected Total Games: 37.0
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

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Ranking Trends

Karen Khachanov

  • Current #24 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #24 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #19 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #22 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #18 2024-05-27

Tommy Paul

  • Current #12 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #10 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #12 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #14 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #14 2024-05-27

Player Metrics

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 71.9
ELO Rating: 1936.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1747.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.6
Clay: 18.8
Grass: 18.3
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 85.5

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 78.6
ELO Rating: 2711.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1790.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.2
Clay: 24.2
Grass: 26.2
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Karen Khachanov
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Tommy Paul
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Marton Fucsovics (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Elmer Moller (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (1-2) clay Rome 103 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Hubert Hurkacz (2-0) clay Rome 118 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (2-0) clay Rome 114 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Karen Khachanov
vs
1
Tommy Paul
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match at Roland Garros between Karen Khachanov and Tommy Paul marks a critical Round of 32 clash on the clay surface of one of the sport's most prestigious Grand Slam tournaments. Tommy Paul is predicted to emerge victorious with a 60.75% probability, while Khachanov holds a 39.25% chance of winning. The match is expected to be competitive, with an anticipated total of 37 games played.

Match Analysis

Tommy Paul, currently ranked 12, boasts a higher form index of 78.61 compared to Khachanov’s 71.91, indicating stronger recent performance. Paul’s Elo rating of 2711.38 significantly surpasses Khachanov’s 1936.69, suggesting a substantial gap in overall competitive strength. Both players have accumulated the same fatigue of 348 minutes in the tournament thus far. However, Paul has a superior surface strength index of 24.21 versus Khachanov’s 18.79, indicating better adaptability on clay. Notably, Tommy Paul’s mean return index of 88.44 exceeds Khachanov’s mean return index of 85.47 by over 5 points, highlighting his effectiveness in breaking opponents' serves. In their recent performances, both players have shown resilience. Khachanov won two out of his last three matches but struggled against Sebastian Ofner in the Geneva tournament, where he was eliminated. Conversely, Paul has emerged victorious in his last two matches at Roland Garros, defeating Marton Fucsovics and Elmer Moller, demonstrating his capability to handle pressure in critical moments.

Final Prediction

Tommy Paul is favored to win due to his superior form, Elo rating, and surface adaptability, all of which contribute to his edge over Khachanov. A key factor to monitor will be how effectively each player can maintain their serve, particularly given the disparity in return abilities, which could heavily influence the match’s outcome.

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