Delray Beach FL, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Learner Tien vs Miomir Kecmanovic: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Learner Tien

Rank: #23
45%
VS

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #66
55%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Miomir Kecmanovic

Player Metrics

Learner Tien

Form Index: 45.0
ELO Rating: 1570.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1566.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.0
Clay: 10.5
Grass: 11.5
Serve Rating: 65.3
Return Rating: 58.4

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 50.8
ELO Rating: 1038.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1599.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 62.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.2
Clay: 8.7
Grass: 8.8
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 91.7

Recent Matches

Learner Tien

  • Last Match: vs Marin Cilic (0-2) hard Dallas 110 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alexander Zverev (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Daniil Medvedev (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Nuno Borges (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alexander Shevchenko (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Miomir Kecmanovic

  • Last Match: vs Mattia Bellucci (2-0) hard Delray Beach 62 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (1-2) hard Dallas 118 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Tommy Paul (2-1) hard Dallas 120 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Sho Shimabukuro (2-1) hard Dallas 124 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Pablo Carreno Busta (1-2) hard Montpellier 127 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Learner Tien
vs
0
Miomir Kecmanovic
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Round of 16 in Delray Beach, FL, on outdoor hard courts at a 250-level event pits Learner Tien against Miomir Kecmanovic. The model favors Kecmanovic to win (54.63%) over Tien (45.37%), with a predicted total of about 23.87 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Tien enters this match as the higher-ranked player (No. 23) with a stronger Elo (1570.39) but a slightly lower form index (45.05) than Kecmanovic (form 50.75). Tien shows no cumulative fatigue from the event, a moderate mean serve index (65.25) and a decent return index (58.41); his surface strength index is 11.99. Kecmanovic, ranked 66 with a lower Elo (1038.43), carries 62 minutes of court time in the tournament, a very high mean serve index (97.82) and an unusually strong mean return index (91.73), while his surface strength index is 9.23. The differences in mean serve and return indices are both well above 5 points, signaling that Kecmanovic’s serve and return metrics are much stronger in the underlying model. Recent form shows mixed patterns: Tien’s last three matches include a straight-sets win over a top opponent (3–0 vs. Medvedev) earlier in the Australian Open, followed by lengthy losses to Zverev (four sets) and a 110-minute defeat to Cilic in Dallas. Kecmanovic has alternated wins and a loss—recently a quick 62-minute straight-sets victory at Delray Beach, a three-set win over Tommy Paul, and a three-set loss to Ben Shelton—indicating sharp but variable performance.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 19.38 total, and the predicted aces skew toward the player with the higher serve index. The double faults prediction is 5.72 expected double faults for the match. On a medium-paced hard court, predicted aces are moderate compared with grass, and expected double faults remain relatively low; Kecmanovic’s significantly higher serve rating is likely to lift the ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.4 Most likely: 19 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Kecmanovic’s edge in both serve and return metrics, plus stronger recent form in this event, drive the projected advantage despite Tien’s superior ranking and Elo. The key factor to watch will be how effectively Tien can neutralize Kecmanovic’s serve and convert return opportunities early in rallies.

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