Delray Beach FL, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Learner Tien vs Miomir Kecmanovic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Learner Tien

Rank: #23
45%
VS

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #66
55%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Miomir Kecmanovic

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Player Metrics

Learner Tien

Form Index: 45.0
ELO Rating: 1570.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1566.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.0
Clay: 10.5
Grass: 11.5
Serve Rating: 65.3
Return Rating: 58.4

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 50.8
ELO Rating: 1038.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1599.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 62.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.2
Clay: 8.7
Grass: 8.8
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 91.7

Recent Matches

Learner Tien

Miomir Kecmanovic

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Learner Tien
vs
0
Miomir Kecmanovic
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Round of 16 in Delray Beach, FL, on outdoor hard courts at a 250-level event pits Learner Tien against Miomir Kecmanovic. The model favors Kecmanovic to win (54.63%) over Tien (45.37%), with a predicted total of about 23.87 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Tien enters this match as the higher-ranked player (No. 23) with a stronger Elo (1570.39) but a slightly lower form index (45.05) than Kecmanovic (form 50.75). Tien shows no cumulative fatigue from the event, a moderate mean serve index (65.25) and a decent return index (58.41); his surface strength index is 11.99. Kecmanovic, ranked 66 with a lower Elo (1038.43), carries 62 minutes of court time in the tournament, a very high mean serve index (97.82) and an unusually strong mean return index (91.73), while his surface strength index is 9.23. The differences in mean serve and return indices are both well above 5 points, signaling that Kecmanovic’s serve and return metrics are much stronger in the underlying model. Recent form shows mixed patterns: Tien’s last three matches include a straight-sets win over a top opponent (3–0 vs. Medvedev) earlier in the Australian Open, followed by lengthy losses to Zverev (four sets) and a 110-minute defeat to Cilic in Dallas. Kecmanovic has alternated wins and a loss—recently a quick 62-minute straight-sets victory at Delray Beach, a three-set win over Tommy Paul, and a three-set loss to Ben Shelton—indicating sharp but variable performance.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Learner Tien versus Miomir Kecmanovic. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Learner Tien versus Miomir Kecmanovic. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Learner Tien - Miomir Kecmanovic) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Learner Tien versus Miomir Kecmanovic. Positive values indicate Learner Tien winning more games, negative values indicate Miomir Kecmanovic winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Learner Tien versus Miomir Kecmanovic. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 19.38 total, and the predicted aces skew toward the player with the higher serve index. The double faults prediction is 5.72 expected double faults for the match. On a medium-paced hard court, predicted aces are moderate compared with grass, and expected double faults remain relatively low; Kecmanovic’s significantly higher serve rating is likely to lift the ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.4 Most likely: 19 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Learner Tien versus Miomir Kecmanovic. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Learner Tien versus Miomir Kecmanovic. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Learner Tien versus Miomir Kecmanovic. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Learner Tien versus Miomir Kecmanovic. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Kecmanovic’s edge in both serve and return metrics, plus stronger recent form in this event, drive the projected advantage despite Tien’s superior ranking and Elo. The key factor to watch will be how effectively Tien can neutralize Kecmanovic’s serve and convert return opportunities early in rallies.

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