Stockholm Sweden Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Leo Borg vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction

Leo Borg

Rank: #1000
20%
VS

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #24
80%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Denis Shapovalov

Ranking Trends

Leo Borg

  • Current Rank: #1000 (None)
  • 3 Months Ago: #495 (2025-07-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #496 (2025-04-14)
  • 9 Months Ago: #541 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #590 (2024-10-14)

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current Rank: #24 (2025-09-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #33 (2025-07-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #29 (2025-04-14)
  • 9 Months Ago: #56 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #92 (2024-10-14)

Player Metrics

Leo Borg

Form Index: 26.7
ELO Rating: 139.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1511.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 75.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.1
Clay: 0.6
Grass: 0.6
Serve Rating: 99.1
Return Rating: 87.4

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 37.5
ELO Rating: 1046.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1590.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.5
Clay: 7.6
Grass: 9.7
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 86.1

Recent Matches

Leo Borg
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Ofner (2-0) hard Stockholm 75 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Ofner (0-2) clay Geneva 74 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jacob Fearnley (0-2) clay Barcelona 112 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexandre Muller (0-2) hard Stockholm 90 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Rafael Nadal (0-2) clay Bastad 85 min

Denis Shapovalov
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (0-2) hard Shanghai 93 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Christopher O'Connell (2-0) hard Shanghai 72 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniel Altmaier (0-2) hard Tokio 90 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Leo Borg
vs
0
Denis Shapovalov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Leo Borg and Denis Shapovalov in the Round of 16 at the Stockholm tournament promises to be an intriguing encounter on hard courts. With Shapovalov holding a significant advantage, he is predicted to win with a probability of 79.63%, while Borg's chances stand at 20.37%. The match is expected to feature a total of approximately 22 games.

Match Analysis

Leo Borg, currently ranked 1000, has a form index of 26.67 and an Elo rating of 139.87, indicating that he is struggling to find consistent performance. His cumulative fatigue from the current tournament stands at 75 minutes, which may impact his endurance. Borg's surface strength index is 1.07, and while he boasts a mean serve index of 99.10, his mean return index of 87.38 may leave him vulnerable against a stronger opponent. In contrast, Denis Shapovalov is ranked 24th and has a significantly higher form index of 37.47 and an Elo rating of 1046.14, showcasing a better competitive edge. Notably, Shapovalov has no cumulative fatigue from the current tournament, allowing him to enter this match fresh. His surface strength index of 12.55, paired with a mean serve index of 95.54 and a mean return index of 86.09, indicates a well-rounded game. The difference in their mean serve index is minimal, but Shapovalov's overall statistics suggest he is better equipped for this encounter. Recent performances show Borg winning his last match convincingly but having lost the two prior matches, while Shapovalov won one of his last three matches, indicating inconsistency, yet he remains the stronger player on paper.

Final Prediction

Denis Shapovalov's higher ranking, superior form index, and lack of fatigue give him a distinct advantage over Leo Borg. The key factor to watch will be Borg's ability to handle Shapovalov's service game, particularly as he seeks to capitalize on any potential weaknesses in Borg's return game.