Chengdu China Hard Atp 250 Semifinals

Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Shevchenko Prediction

Lorenzo Musetti

Rank: #9
71%
VS

Alexander Shevchenko

Rank: #96
29%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Musetti

Player Metrics

Lorenzo Musetti

Form Index: 61.5
ELO Rating: 2389.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1727.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 212.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.0
Clay: 23.9
Grass: 22.0
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 88.3

Alexander Shevchenko

Form Index: 53.2
ELO Rating: 702.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1591.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 377.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.0
Clay: 6.6
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 89.0

Recent Matches

Lorenzo Musetti

  • Last Match: vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (2-0) hard Chengdu 76 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Dino Prizmic (2-1) hard Chengdu 136 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jannik Sinner (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Flavio Cobolli (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs David Goffin (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min

Alexander Shevchenko

  • Last Match: vs Taro Daniel (2-1) hard Chengdu 135 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (2-1) hard Chengdu 134 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Gael Monfils (2-1) hard Chengdu 108 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Daniel Elahi Galan (0-2) hard Cincinnati 93 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Lorenzo Musetti
vs
0
Alexander Shevchenko
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The semifinals of the Chengdu tournament in China features a compelling matchup on hard courts between Lorenzo Musetti and Alexander Shevchenko. Musetti is favored to win, with a probability of 71.44%, while Shevchenko's chances stand at 28.56%. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is set at 22.0.

Match Analysis

Lorenzo Musetti, currently ranked 9th, boasts a form index of 61.53 and an Elo rating of 2389.61. He has accumulated 212 minutes of fatigue during the tournament, indicating a relatively lighter load than his opponent. Musetti's surface strength index of 12.95 reflects his proficiency on hard courts, complemented by a mean serve index of 96.80 and a mean return index of 88.27. In contrast, Alexander Shevchenko, ranked 96th, has a form index of 53.19 and an Elo rating of 702.94, highlighting a significant difference in experience and current form. Shevchenko's fatigue level is notably higher at 377 minutes, and his surface strength index is significantly lower at 7.02. Although Shevchenko's mean serve index of 95.39 is competitive, Musetti's superior mean serve index gives him an edge. In their recent performances, Musetti has shown strong form, winning his last two matches decisively, including a straight-sets victory over Nikoloz Basilashvili. His only setback came at the US Open against Jannik Sinner. Conversely, Shevchenko has also been successful in his last three matches in Chengdu, displaying resilience and determination, but his matches have been more contested, often going to three sets.

Final Prediction

Musetti's higher ranking, better form index, and superior performance on hard courts position him as the likely victor in this semifinal match. A key factor to watch will be Musetti's serve, as his ability to consistently hold serve against Shevchenko could prove decisive in determining the match's outcome.