Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Quarterfinals

Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Zverev Prediction

Lorenzo Musetti

Rank: #9
41%
VS

Alexander Zverev

Rank: #2
59%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Alexander Zverev

Player Metrics

Lorenzo Musetti

Form Index: 61.6
ELO Rating: 2698.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1712.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 267.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.1
Clay: 22.9
Grass: 23.1
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 88.2

Alexander Zverev

Form Index: 60.7
ELO Rating: 6861.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1886.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 256.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.8
Clay: 60.0
Grass: 66.4
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 88.0

Recent Matches

Lorenzo Musetti

  • Last Match: vs Daniil Medvedev (2-0) clay Rome 99 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) clay Rome 83 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Otto Virtanen (2-0) clay Rome 85 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Jack Draper (0-2) clay Madrid 117 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Gabriel Diallo (2-0) clay Madrid 89 min

Alexander Zverev

  • Last Match: vs Arthur Fils (2-0) clay Rome 105 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Vilius Gaubas (2-0) clay Rome 85 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-0) clay Rome 66 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) clay Madrid 89 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-1) clay Madrid 164 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Lorenzo Musetti
vs
0
Alexander Zverev
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the quarterfinals of the Masters 1000 tournament in Rome, Lorenzo Musetti faces off against Alexander Zverev on clay. With Zverev being the higher-ranked player, he is predicted to win with a probability of 59.30%, while Musetti has a 40.70% chance of victory. The anticipated total number of games played is 23.

Match Analysis

Lorenzo Musetti, currently ranked 9th with an Elo rating of 2698, has shown solid form with a form index of 61.56. His cumulative fatigue of 267 minutes indicates he has had a demanding tournament so far. On clay, his surface strength index of 22.88 reflects a developing proficiency, particularly compared to Zverev. In contrast, Alexander Zverev, ranked 2nd with a significantly higher Elo rating of 6862, possesses a form index of 60.74 and a lower fatigue level of 256 minutes. His surface strength index of 60.01 demonstrates a strong aptitude for clay, which enhances his competitive edge. The mean serve index for Musetti stands at 97.30, slightly higher than Zverev’s 96.86, indicating a competitive serving ability. However, the mean return indices are closely matched, with Musetti at 88.19 and Zverev at 88.04, suggesting that both players can capitalize on their opponent's weaknesses. In their last three matches, Musetti has been dominant, winning all matches convincingly without dropping a set. Zverev also maintained a strong performance, securing straight-set victories against his opponents, albeit against slightly lesser-ranked players.

Final Prediction

Zverev's higher rank and superior surface strength index give him an edge, despite Musetti’s recent strong performances. The match will likely hinge on Zverev's ability to leverage his clay court experience and maintain his serving consistency against Musetti's emerging prowess on the surface.