Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 16

Lorenzo Musetti vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction

Lorenzo Musetti

Rank: #9
43%
VS

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #11
57%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Player Metrics

Lorenzo Musetti

Form Index: 60.8
ELO Rating: 2592.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1704.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 168.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.1
Clay: 22.0
Grass: 23.1
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 88.1

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 56.7
ELO Rating: 4021.9
Glicko2 Rating: 2182.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 178.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 35.0
Clay: 39.8
Grass: 45.4
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 88.6

Recent Matches

Lorenzo Musetti

  • Last Match: vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) clay Rome 83 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Otto Virtanen (2-0) clay Rome 85 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jack Draper (0-2) clay Madrid 117 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Gabriel Diallo (2-0) clay Madrid 89 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alex de Minaur (2-0) clay Madrid 83 min

Daniil Medvedev

  • Last Match: vs Alexei Popyrin (2-0) clay Rome 86 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Cameron Norrie (2-0) clay Rome 92 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Casper Ruud (0-2) clay Madrid 100 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Brandon Nakashima (2-1) clay Madrid 109 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (2-0) clay Madrid 63 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Lorenzo Musetti
vs
0
Daniil Medvedev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 16 match at the Masters 1000 tournament in Rome sees Lorenzo Musetti facing off against Daniil Medvedev on clay. With a slight edge, Medvedev is predicted to win this encounter, holding a probability of 56.53% compared to Musetti's 43.47%. The anticipated total number of games played is set at 23.

Match Analysis

Ranked 9th, Lorenzo Musetti has a form index of 60.79 and an Elo rating of 2592.90, indicating solid performance on clay. His cumulative fatigue stands at 168 minutes, suggesting he has navigated through the tournament relatively well. Musetti's surface strength index of 21.97 reflects a moderate capability on clay, while his mean serve index of 97.27 is impressive, showcasing his ability to serve effectively. However, his mean return index of 88.15 is slightly lower, indicating room for improvement against strong returners. On the other hand, Daniil Medvedev, ranked 11th, presents a formidable challenge with a form index of 56.65 and an Elo rating of 4021.86, indicating a higher level of play. His fatigue level is slightly higher at 178 minutes, but this has not hindered his performance so far. Medvedev's surface strength index of 39.85 significantly surpasses Musetti's, while his mean serve index of 95.18 is competitive. Notably, Medvedev's mean return index of 88.56 exceeds Musetti's by a slim margin, suggesting he can effectively capitalize on return opportunities. Both players have shown strong recent performances, with Musetti winning his last two matches against Brandon Nakashima and Otto Virtanen in straight sets. Conversely, Medvedev has also been successful, winning against Alexei Popyrin and Cameron Norrie without dropping a set. However, both players experienced a setback in their previous tournaments in Madrid, where they lost their respective matches.

Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev's edge lies in his superior surface strength index and slightly better return capabilities, which could prove crucial in a match on clay. A key factor to observe will be how each player's serve is utilized, particularly in crucial points, as this may ultimately dictate the outcome of the match.