Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Luca Nardi vs Tomas Machac Prediction

Luca Nardi

Rank: #98
35%
VS

Tomas Machac

Rank: #24
65%
Expected Total Games: 37.0
Predicted Winner: Tomas Machac

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Ranking Trends

Luca Nardi

  • Current #98 2025-08-04
  • 3 mo ago #95 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #79 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #91 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #90 2024-08-26

Tomas Machac

  • Current #24 2025-08-04
  • 3 mo ago #22 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #25 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #25 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #39 2024-08-26

Player Metrics

Luca Nardi

Form Index: 42.0
ELO Rating: 781.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1559.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.5
Clay: 6.3
Grass: 5.4
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 87.1

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 29.7
ELO Rating: 1199.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1587.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.2
Clay: 14.0
Grass: 13.1
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 87.2

Recent Matches

Luca Nardi
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Tomas Machac
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Adrian Mannarino (0-2) hard Cincinnati 90 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Reilly Opelka (1-2) hard Toronto 140 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs August Holmgren (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) grass Halle 82 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Luca Nardi
vs
0
Tomas Machac
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Luca Nardi and Tomas Machac at the US Open marks a pivotal clash in the round of 128 on hard courts in New York. Based on current performance metrics, Tomas Machac is predicted to emerge victorious, with a probability of 64.63% compared to Luca Nardi's 35.37%. The expected total number of games played in this encounter is approximately 37.

Match Analysis

Tomas Machac, currently ranked 24, boasts a significantly higher Elo rating of 1199.15 compared to Luca Nardi's 781.62, reflecting his stronger competitive standing. While Machac's form index is lower at 29.68, indicating recent struggles, his surface strength index of 14.18 suggests he is better suited to hard courts than Nardi, who has a surface strength index of 7.54. Notably, the mean serve index difference is minimal at just over 1 point, with Machac at 95.39 and Nardi at 96.35. However, both players show similar return indices, with Nardi at 87.06 and Machac at 87.19, indicating a balanced return game. In their recent performances, Nardi has experienced a mixed bag, winning against Jakub Mensik and Denis Shapovalov but losing to Carlos Alcaraz in his last outing. Conversely, Machac has faced difficulties as well, with losses to Adrian Mannarino, Reilly Opelka, and August Holmgren, though these matches have been competitive. This inconsistent form for both players adds an intriguing layer to their matchup.

Final Prediction

Tomas Machac's edge in rankings, despite recent struggles, positions him as the favored contender in this match. His overall competitive experience on hard surfaces may be crucial, making it essential to monitor his serve efficacy throughout the game.

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