Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Karen Khachanov vs Luciano Darderi: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #17
59%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #24
41%
Expected Total Games: 38.9
Predicted Winner: Karen Khachanov

Player Metrics

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 72.4
ELO Rating: 2214.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1740.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.9
Clay: 17.3
Grass: 18.9
Serve Rating: 71.7
Return Rating: 63.4

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 73.3
ELO Rating: 1521.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1627.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.1
Clay: 12.7
Grass: 11.3
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 91.6

Recent Matches

Karen Khachanov

  • Last Match: vs Nishesh Basavareddy (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alex Michelsen (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Michael Mmoh (0-2) hard Hong Kong 122 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alex de Minaur (0-2) hard Paris 68 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Joao Fonseca (2-1) hard Paris 110 min

Luciano Darderi

  • Last Match: vs Sebastian Baez (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Cristian Garin (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (1-2) hard Auckland 155 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alejandro Tabilo (2-1) hard Auckland 108 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Arthur Cazaux (0-2) hard Paris 128 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Karen Khachanov
vs
0
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

As the Australian Open progresses to the Round of 32, Karen Khachanov is set to face Luciano Darderi on hard courts in Australia. With a predicted winner of Khachanov at a 58.60% probability, compared to Darderi's 41.40%, fans can expect a competitive match with a total of approximately 38.86 games played.

Match Analysis

Karen Khachanov, currently ranked 17, possesses a form index of 72.41 and an Elo rating of 2214.92. His fatigue level sits at 348 minutes, indicating a consistent performance throughout the tournament. His surface strength index is 10.95, while his mean serve index is 71.73, showing a solid serving ability. Conversely, Luciano Darderi, ranked 24, has a slightly higher form index of 73.31 but a lower Elo rating of 1521.76. Also at 348 minutes of fatigue, Darderi boasts a higher mean serve index of 97.27 and a return index of 91.59, suggesting he may excel in returning serves. The significant difference of over 5 points in mean serve index (Khachanov's 71.73 vs. Darderi's 97.27) could play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of their service exchanges. In their last three matches, Khachanov has shown resilience, winning two out of three encounters, including a straight-sets victory against Nishesh Basavareddy. Darderi, on the other hand, has also won two of his last three matches, showcasing his competitive edge with a recent win against Sebastian Baez. Both players are demonstrating strong form, but Khachanov's recent experience in Grand Slam settings may give him an advantage.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.9 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to yield around 10.06 aces and 5.63 double faults, indicating a moderately competitive serving environment. Given the hard court surface, which provides a balanced setting for both power servers and effective returners, fans can anticipate a reasonable number of aces. Darderi's higher mean serve index suggests he may contribute more significantly to the aces prediction, while both players may experience some double faults due to the pressure of the Grand Slam stage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Khachanov's slight edge in experience and recent performance in the tournament is likely to play a vital role in his favor against Darderi. Observers should pay attention to the effectiveness of Khachanov's serve against Darderi's strong return game, as this could ultimately dictate the match's momentum.

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