Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Korda Prediction

Marcos Giron

Rank: #50
49%
VS

Sebastian Korda

Rank: #79
51%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Sebastian Korda

Ranking Trends

Marcos Giron

  • Current Rank: #50 (2025-09-15)
  • 3 Months Ago: #46 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #45 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #46 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #47 (2024-09-23)

Sebastian Korda

  • Current Rank: #79 (2025-09-15)
  • 3 Months Ago: #31 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #25 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #22 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #16 (2024-09-23)

Player Metrics

Marcos Giron

Form Index: 45.6
ELO Rating: 1133.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1588.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.2
Clay: 8.7
Grass: 10.3
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 86.4

Sebastian Korda

Form Index: 42.2
ELO Rating: 1540.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1663.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.2
Clay: 15.2
Grass: 18.3
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 85.3

Recent Matches

Marcos Giron
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (1-2) hard Chengdu 132 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-0) hard Chengdu 103 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Ethan Quinn (2-0) hard Chengdu 90 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Benjamin Bonzi (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Mariano Navone (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min

Sebastian Korda
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Yibing Wu (1-2) hard Hangzhou 109 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Hangzhou 87 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Cameron Norrie (0-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-0) hard Winston Salem 68 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Kamil Majchrzak (2-1) hard Winston Salem 128 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Marcos Giron
vs
0
Sebastian Korda
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the ATP 500 tournament in Tokyo, Marcos Giron will face Sebastian Korda on hard courts. With both players exhibiting competitive probabilities of winning—49.25% for Giron and 50.75% for Korda—the predicted total number of games played stands at 23.0, suggesting a closely contested match ahead.

Match Analysis

Marcos Giron, currently ranked 50, has a form index of 45.58 and an Elo rating of 1133.45. His performance on hard courts is reflected in a surface strength index of 10.23, indicating a decent capability on this surface. Giron showcases a mean serve index of 97.02, which is slightly superior to Korda's 95.47, giving him an advantage in service games. However, Korda holds a better mean return index at 85.34 compared to Giron's 86.38, suggesting he may excel in returning Giron's serves. Sebastian Korda, ranked 79, has a lower form index of 42.21 and a significantly higher Elo rating of 1540.44, indicating stronger overall performance metrics. Both players enter this match with no cumulative fatigue, allowing them to compete at their highest levels. Looking at their recent performances, Giron won two out of his last three matches, including a strong showing against Lorenzo Sonego, while Korda has struggled slightly, winning one of his last three matches. His recent loss against Yibing Wu may weigh on his confidence.

Final Prediction

Sebastian Korda's higher Elo rating and superior recent match performance, despite his lower rank, provide him with a slight edge in this matchup. A key factor to monitor will be the effectiveness of Korda's return game against Giron's serve, which could ultimately dictate the outcome of the match.